Where do invasive species spread and why? Researchers take a new approach to finding the answer

Science makes it difficult for scientists to simulate spreads and predict where they will go next, as invasive species (such as spotted tilapia) are constantly moving. Researchers at the University of Florida Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences will dig deeper to understand why certain locations are susceptible to invasions by non-native plants and animals, and expand their targets for these species. was a major target for it.

What they came up with is a new approach to updating what scientists call environmental resistance (ER) modeling, which adds a layer of people researchers think are lacking in modeling strategies.

This study focused on the eastern US hotspots of invasive species. For example, Florida has more invasive vertebrates than any other state, but the Great Lakes Region and the Northeast are the main battlefields of invasive plants, and belongs to the UF/IFAS Institute of Invasion Science and Lead said postdoctoral researcher Yunpen Liu. Research author.

By analyzing invasion patterns in these areas, researchers identified which types of environmental resistance modeling plays the biggest role in stopping or allowing invaders to spread.

The findings published in the Journal of Biogeography provide a roadmap to identify areas that are prone to invasion before new species acquire scaffolding.

“Traditionally, scientists have used climate-based models to predict where invasive species will spread,” Liu said. “These models assume that if a species flourishes in one climate or condition, it will work well in similar environments elsewhere.”

Liu argues that this approach has limitations. This is because they have no ability to consider how quickly invasive species can adapt and how local ecosystems resist new potential invaders.

“Most importantly, traditional modeling strategies provide sufficient spread of invasion if you don’t know much about the appropriate climate for invasion species or are not sure about adaptation after colonization of new habitats. I don’t predict,” he said. “What we came up with is an ER modeling update that adds missing required layers.”

ER modeling measures how difficult it is to establish an invasive species in new regions. The difficulty depends on the degree to which the existing species of the location is similar to the type of adjacent invasion area. The more similar a species gathered at a location to a location that has already been invaded, the more likely the location will be invaded.

The authors improved their ER modeling strategies with a new approach. In addition to taking into account species similarity, they also developed an alternative ER model by measuring environmental resistance using other factors such as soil type and human activity. They used each ER model to simulate the observed intrusion distributions and identified the best models that simulate the most accurately simulated intrusion distributions. The best models were then used to predict the spread of invasions in the eastern US.

“The ER model based on the similarity of native species was the best model to predict current spread not only invasive plants but also invasive animals. This is the main model for invasive invasive species. It means that drivers are similarities between native species rather than other species. Factors such as climate, soil type, and human activity,” he said.

This study investigated how temperature shifts alter the risk of invasion. As temperature and ecosystems change, so does the movement of native species types, resulting in some areas becoming more vulnerable to invasion and others developing stronger natural defenses. It has sex.

“The findings suggest that groupings of native species may be more similar in the future than today, and most of them are especially for those who already occupy a wide range of habitats. It increases the spread of invasive species.” li. “Areas near major cities, Florida’s invasion hotspots, will be exposed to high risk of invasion in the future.”

The study provides valuable insights to ecologists, land managers and policymakers working to counter the spreading of invasive species, he said. Understanding the interactions between invasive species and their new environments could lead to more effective strategies to protect native biodiversity and maintain an ecological balance.