Use satellite data to monitor and navigate ice water

With rising sea traffic in the warming Arctic Circle, researchers are helping sailors plan safer courses through sea ice and icebergs thanks to more reliable satellite-based predictions.

Nicholas “Nico” Dubraille, a veteran polar explorer with over 30 years of experience in the Arctic, knows firsthand the dangers of navigating the icy landscapes of the region.

In 2001, he suffered a serious fall and suffered serious injuries while trekking through an ice pack in Greenland. However, this experience left him captivated by the Arctic Circle.

“I chose to adopt the Greenland motto: “Only Time and Ice Master,” leaving my life in France, moving to a small village in northern Greenland, learning the traditional way of life,” he said.

Today, from Kullorsuaq, a village in northern Greenland, Dubreuil operates a bespoke tour operator service offering expeditions for tourists, film crews and scientists who want to learn more about sea ice and icebergs.

One of Dubreuil’s latest adventures involves training hunters from the region. Their unique skills and ice knowledge are used to support a team led by Frenchman Laurent Batino, a mathematician at the Nansen Environmental Sensing Centre (NERSC) in Bergen, Norway.

These exploits are part of an ambitious initiative aimed at making it safer for ships to navigate the Arctic Ocean.

Iceberg warning

The Arctic is undergoing major changes due to climate change, with rising temperatures reducing sea ice cover, thinning ice, increasing glacial calving, and increasing icebergs.

Over the past decades, satellite observations have shown that Arctic summer sea ice has shrinked at about 13% per decade, ranking 2023 in the lowest range on record. The biggest danger to the ship is spring and summer when ice sheets break and drift away, creating dangerous sheets of floating ice called ice flow.

In a partnership, including Norwegian Meteorological Institute, European Meteorological Forecast Centre, Mercator Ocean International, Italian National Research Council, Istanbul Institute of Technology, and Denmark Meteorological Institute, NERSC coordinates an international research effort called Acciberg, which will operate from January 2023 to December 2023.

Accurate predictions

The Acciberg team uses satellite data from the Copernicus network to monitor sea ice and icebergs in the Arctic Circle. These satellites also provide ocean and wave information that is integrated into predictive models to predict iceberg drift.

Their goal is to significantly improve the accuracy and reliability of navigation information for shipping in the Arctic region by developing two freely available predictive prototypes. One can provide sea ice forecasts from days to months with indications of uncertainty, and the second can provide iceberg trajectory forecasts calculated on demand. Icebergs’ GPS tags are used to improve predictive models.

One of the biggest challenges is to provide timely and accurate forecasts for shipping to the ocean. Currently, onshore teams often email image files via email, especially given limited internet connections in remote Arctic waters.

“The only information about the crew on board is satellite data from two to three days ago. It’s useful, but safety can change rapidly for members of the crew who have the time and expertise to interpret it,” Bertino said.

Delivery route expansion

By improving stochastic prediction, the Acciberg team wants to provide a clearer risk assessment and a better window for safe passage to seafarers. They work closely with end users such as Ice Services in Norway and Greenland to refine and test these technologies.

Keld Qvistgaard is a senior ice specialist at Greenland Ice Service, a specialist division of the Danish Meteorological Institute focused on monitoring and analysis of sea ice conditions around Greenland. He is an active partner of the Acciberg team.

“Shipping is on the rise, and the needs and requirements of our users are changing. There is a huge need to advance technology for ice monitoring and forecasting,” he said.

Arctic Council research suggests a 37% increase in shipments over the past decade, indicating that ice will grow even more by 2050 when opening new routes.

Three passages, the northwest passage (via Greenland and Canada), the North Sea Route (via Russia), and the Transporal Sea Route (via Iceland), provide potentially fast and inexpensive cargo transport.

However, voyages in the Arctic remain dangerous. Even with the assistance of icebreakers, a vessel covered like a steel vessel designed to get through the ice can pose a serious risk to its expected condition.

In November 2021, an unusual weather event in the East Siberian seas caused an early, intense sea ice layer known as rapid freeze. Over 20 ships were trapped in thick pack ice cream, requiring long and expensive rescue operations.

“The Arctic voyage season is much longer than it was 20 years ago, and it’s much more diverse,” Batino said.

Navigate the future

Beyond the improvements to existing products in Copernicus Marine and Climate Change services, the Acciberg team is also developing new open source prediction software.

In the future, these predictions can be incorporated into digital navigation systems to work closely with the Copernicus Arctic Hub to further enhance Arctic safety.

Officially launched in October 2023, Arctic Hub serves as a centralized platform that provides access to a wide range of data and information about the Arctic Circle to support evidence-based decision-making and sustainable management practices.

For now, however, Bertino sees the benefits of improved forecasting that extend beyond commercial transport.

“It’s not just about the economy, it’s about supporting people who live and work in the Arctic,” he said.

It is an emotion echoed by his fellow countryman, Nico Dubreuille, and back in Greenland, the iceberg also poses a real danger to the local community. This is part of the reason we are happy to be able to contribute positively by placing beacons on icebergs.

“The project is not just about technology, but about people living in these areas, scientists working to make voyages safer, and tourists learning about the importance of the environment. We all connect with this effort,” he said.

This article was originally published in Horizon the EU Research and Innovation Magazine.