The Earth is already shooting through 1.5°C global warming restrictions, two major studies show

The Earth is above the 1.5°C threshold for global warming, according to two major global studies that are likely to have entered a scary new phase.

Under the Paris Landmarks on Climate Change 2015 Paris Agreement, humanity aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and keep planetary heating below 1.5°C above pre-industrial average. In 2024, global temperatures exceeded that limit.

This was not enough to declare that the Paris thresholds crossed, as consensus temperature targets were measured over decades, rather than a short excursion at the 1.5°C mark.

However, the two papers that were just released use different measurements. Both looked at historical climate data to determine whether the very hot years of recent past are indications of future long-term warming thresholds being breached.

Surprisingly, the answer was yes. Researchers say the record year 2024 shows that the Earth has passed the 1.5°C limit.

2024: Many many first years above 1.5°C

Climate organizations around the world agreed last year to be the hottest on record. The global temperature in 2024 was above about 1.6°C, before humans began burning fossil fuels on a large scale, at a temperature of about 1.6°C, than the average temperature of the second half of the 19th century.

The Earth has recently experienced individual days and months than the 1.5°C warming mark.

However, global temperatures vary from year to year. For example, the 2024 temperature spikes were driven by natural El Niño patterns at the beginning of the year, largely due to climate change. That pattern has dissipated for now and is expected to be a little cooler in 2025.

These annual variations mean that climate scientists will not consider a year beyond the 1.5°C mark to be non-compliant with the Paris Agreement.

However, a new study published today on Natural Climate Change could mean that global warming is in a long-term violation of its important threshold at 1.5°C for a month or even a year. It suggests that there is.

What the research found

This study was conducted independently by researchers from Europe and Canada. They addressed the same basic question: a year is a warning sign that we have already exceeded the Paris Agreement threshold?

Both studies addressed this question using observations and simulations of climate models.

In a European paper, researchers looked at historical trends in global warming. They found that the next 20 years of age also reached that threshold when the average Earth temperature reached a constant threshold.

This pattern suggests that, given that the Earth reached 1.5°C warming last year, it may have entered a 20-year warming period, with an average temperature also reaching 1.5°C.

The Canadian paper included monthly data. Last June, it was the 12th consecutive month, surpassing the temperature warming level of 1.5°C. Researchers found that climate thresholds are shown to be reachable over the long term.

Both studies show that even if severe emission reductions begin, the Earth is likely still above the 1.5°C threshold.

I’m heading in the wrong direction

Given these discoveries, it is important that humanity does the next thing.

For decades, climate scientists have warned that fossil fuel fuels will release carbon dioxide and other gases that warm the planets for energy.

However, human greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase. Since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released its first report in 1990, global annual carbon footprint has risen by around 50%.

Simply put, we are not moving in the right direction, not to mention the necessary pace.

Science shows that greenhouse gas emissions need to reach net zero and end global warming. Still, some aspects of the climate continue to change over the centuries, especially in the ocean, as warming in some regions is already trapped and irreversible.

If the Earth is actually above the 1.5°C mark and humanity wants to fall below the threshold again, it will need to cool the planet by reaching “net-negative emissions.” This is a very challenging task.

I feel the heat

The harmful effects of climate change are already being felt around the world. The harm will be even worse for future generations.

Australia has experienced an average warming of 1.5°C since 1910.

Our unique ecosystems such as the Great Barrier Reef are already suffering due to this warming. Our oceans are hot, the oceans are rising, slamming the coastline and threatening marine life.

Wildfires and extreme weather, especially heat waves, are becoming more frequent and more severe. This puts pressure on nature, society, and our economy.

But in the darkness there are signs of progress.

The number of renewable power generation is on the rise all over the world. Fossil fuel use is declining in many countries. Technology development has slowed the increase in emissions from polluted industries such as aviation and construction.

But obviously there’s far more to do.

Humanity can change the tide

These studies are reminders of how short things humanity can calm down by tackling climate change.

They show that we must urgently adapt to further global warming. In a series of changes needed, rich countries must support poor countries set up to suffer the most severe climate harms. There has been some progress in this regard, but much more progress is needed.

Major changes are also needed to decarbonize our society and economy. There is still room for hope, but we should not delay action. Otherwise, humanity will continue to warm the planet, causing further damage.

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