Study finds that natural regeneration of tropical forests has immense potential to address environmental challenges

Joshua Slaughter (left) and Matthew Fagan discuss a map of Costa Rica’s forested areas. A global map of potential natural forest regrowth areas, developed in a nature study led by Brooke Williams and Hawthorne Beyer and based on the Global Forest Lands Database developed by Fagan, covers the area of tropical Mexico. This suggests that larger areas may be able to regrow. It stores 23.4 gigatonnes of carbon. Credit: Marlayna Demond/UMBC
A study in Nature found that up to 215 million hectares of land in the world’s humid tropics – an area larger than Mexico – has the potential to regrow naturally.
This much forest could store 23.4 gigatonnes of carbon over 30 years, which could also have significant implications for concerns such as biodiversity loss and water quality. The study showed that more than half of the regions with high potential for regrowth are in five countries: Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, China, and Colombia.
“Planting trees in degraded landscapes can be costly. By leveraging natural regeneration techniques, countries can cost-effectively meet their restoration goals,” said the study’s co-lead authors, Australian says Brooke Williams, a researcher at the Queensland University of Technology. Institute for Competency Exchange in Environmental Decision Making.
“Our model can show where these savings can be best utilized,” she says.
The culmination of decades of efforts
Matthew Fagan, associate professor of geography and environmental systems at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC) and second author of the new study, developed the dataset on which the authors relied.
The study used “satellite imagery to identify millions of small areas where tree cover has increased over time. It then used machine learning to filter out areas planted by humans and We focused on re-growth,” Fagan said.
The study tracked regrowth from 2000 to 2012 and then determined whether regrowth was sustained through 2015. “These natural patches were the input data for this new study,” he says. Past regrowth was observed. ”
Hawthorne Beyer, head of geospatial science at Monbac, a Brazilian startup aiming to generate high-quality carbon credits through reforestation of the Amazon, and scientific director of the Institute for Competency Exchange in Environmental Decision Making The study, which he co-led, was also retracted. A global dataset describing factors such as soil quality, slope, road and population density, local wealth, and distance from urban centers and healthy forests.
“Every time you build a world-class study like this, you’re standing on the backs of many other scientists,” Fagan says. “Each of these studies is the result of many years of research.”
The study found that the factors most strongly associated with high regrowth potential were the patch’s proximity to existing forest, the density of nearby forest, and the carbon content in the soil. These factors, in particular, “seem to explain very well the patterns of regrowth we’re seeing around the world,” Fagan says.
For example, Fagan explains that proximity to existing forest is key to supplying the area with a variety of seeds to support diverse regrowth.
Stay local by providing a global map
The final product of the study is a digital map of the world’s tropical regions, where each pixel representing a 30 x 30 square meter of land shows its estimated regrowth potential. This map is made possible by a broad international collaboration of researchers and is a boon for environmentalists around the world who want to support local efforts.
“Our goal and hope is that this will be used democratically by local people, organizations and communities from the county level to the national level to advocate for where remediation takes place,” Fagan said. say.
“The people who live there should be responsible for what happens there. Where and how they recover really depends on the local situation.”
Fagan said some of the areas with potential for regrowth identified in the study are in areas that are actively used for ranching or agriculture, are located in prime locations near roads or urban centers, etc. , point out that it is unlikely to be restored for a variety of reasons.
However, a significant portion of the 215 million hectares is abandoned and degraded cattle pasture or previously cleared forest, and promoting natural regeneration would minimize costs to local economies. , there are many benefits.
“Returning this to the rainforest would have tremendous benefits for water quality, water supplies, local biodiversity and soil quality,” Fagan said.
“It’s also a huge benefit in taking carbon out of the atmosphere, so the question is simply, ‘Where can we do this most efficiently?'” That’s what this paper is all about. ”
Further information: Brooke Williams, Global potential for natural regeneration in deforested tropical regions, Nature (2024). DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-08106-4. www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08106-4
Provided by University of Maryland, Baltimore County
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