Space & Cosmos

Space researchers build signal system to warn of dangerous solar storms

Credit: Pager

Researchers have created an improved signaling system to predict geomagnetic storms. They are currently testing how well these algorithms can prepare us for space storms that could wreak havoc by knocking out satellites in space and power grids on Earth. .

Yuri Shprits, a space scientist at the German Earth Science Research Center in Potsdam, is on a mission to save our planet.

We’ve known for a long time that much of our modern way of life is threatened by the whims of the sun. If our star suddenly enters a more active period, it could trigger geomagnetic storms that can knock out satellites or cause power outages on Earth.

But can we predict when these storms will arrive, how they will affect Earth’s environment and infrastructure, and how to be ready? This is what SHPRITS has been working on, starting with an EU project named Pager that ran from 2020 to 2023.

Spatial weather prediction

The researchers’ goal was to develop an algorithm that could pull data from sun-obsessed telescopes and satellites, along with data from satellites in Earth orbit. Based on that, they were able to predict that dangerous geomagnetic storms are heading in our direction and what will happen for space and terrestrial infrastructure.

To do so, researchers connected various computer models of the solar environment and near Earth space.

According to Shprits, “In a best-case scenario,” it could take an hour or two to calculate what will arrive on Earth and what effects it will have in the near-Earth environment, but this disturbance It actually takes 2 days to arrive.

This will allow the satellite to prepare, as it may take several more days for radiation that could be harmful to the satellite to accumulate.

The algorithm devised by the Pager team is currently being put through its paces to see how useful it is.

“After decades of basic space research that began with the first U.S. satellite discovering harmful cosmic radiation in 1958, we are finally at the point where we have reached predictive ability,” Shprits said. said. “We are very excited.”

storm front

Geomagnetic storms occur when powerful eruptions from the Sun interact with our planet’s magnetic field.

As the solar wind travels from the Sun to Earth, it can carry charged particles that interact with Earth’s protective magnetic field. These are further heated within the magnetosphere, creating highly energized particles that are harmful to the satellite.

Collisions of these particles with particles in Earth’s atmosphere can produce spectacular aurora borealis as seen from Earth. But they also pose a danger, as they can interfere with the satellite’s electronic systems. Such geomagnetic storms have hit space equipment very recently.

In February 2022, the US company SpaceX lost 38 of its Starlink internet satellites when a powerful geomagnetic storm pulled them back into the Earth’s atmosphere after they launched.

Meanwhile, a US company lost control of its Galaxy 15 satellite in April 2010 due to a geomagnetic storm. “Due to frequency interference, it started threatening other spacecraft and started drifting,” Shprits said. “This could be very expensive, as the price of a spacecraft can exceed 1 billion euros.”

Geomagnetic storms also cause problems on Earth. The current they create can overload power plants and cause temporary power outages. This occurred in Quebec, Canada in 1989, when a geomagnetic storm caused a widespread power outage for nine hours.

Extremely strong storms in October and November 2003 caused disruption of satellite services, numerous satellite anomalies, and disruptions to communications, power grids, and GPS navigation in many regions around the world.

radiation belt

Most near-Earth satellites also operate in Earth’s radiation belts. Earth’s radiation belts operate in a region of space up to 58,000 kilometers above the planet where many electrically charged particles become trapped in Earth’s magnetic field. These belts can intensify dramatically during storms.

“GPS satellites operate in the heart of these belts, where radiation is most harmful,” Shprits said. Although these spacecraft are well protected, most energetic particles can penetrate their shields and still cause damage.

To protect against solar events, countries in Europe and the United States have space weather prediction centers that can predict when bad storms will arrive on Earth. But until recently, these predictions did not involve models that can predict radiation in space, how this radiation penetrates spacecraft, or its potential effects on Earth.

In the Posier project, scientists from Europe and the United States combined models of the sun and solar environment with models of the terrestrial environment and models to develop a comprehensive prediction system.

Shprits said, “Some of the space weather predictions are so intricate and complex that the stakeholders sometimes don’t have PhDs in astrophysics. They have to figure out if it’s going to be safe or not. I just want to know.”

space signal

Therefore, the pager team’s goal was to create a simple traffic light system based on predictions. It tells satellite operators whether conditions in space are safe or not.

Using Pager, operators should quickly know if the situation is red and consider temporarily switching the satellite into protection mode. Yellow means you need to be wary of potential impacts, while green means everything is OK.

“Green means ‘don’t worry, nothing’s happening,'” Shprits said. “That’s actually the most convenient thing for them because if there’s a storm, they want a clear indication that they can get back to normal operations.”

To perform these calculations, Pager is constantly running on a powerful machine in the computer center of Germany’s Geoscience Research Center.

“Typically, the most difficult forecasts are made at night to avoid overloading the computers,” Shprits said.

He said his team has moved to predicting probabilities, explaining that it is virtually impossible to predict the effects of a storm very accurately over the long term.

“When you say there’s 80% certainty, it’s the same as when you’re told there’s an 80% chance that it’s going to rain, even though there are very harsh conditions in the universe.”

“It gives you the idea that it’s better to take an umbrella. It’s like a satellite.”

improved model

SHPRITS is currently in discussions with the European Space Agency (ESA) about a new project that will allow ESA to adopt several pager models in its operations.

The goal is to continue to improve the forecasting service and make it better and better at analyzing incoming spatial weather events.

“We’re using machine learning in a lot of places and trying to blend it into this infrastructure. We’re also trying to use all the real-time data available and blend it with predictions so that measurements can improve models. ”

Another thing that can help is more satellite data. Shprits explained that an upcoming ESA project to monitor the near-Earth radiation environment will provide “real-time measurements of the harsh radiation in the magnetosphere that will be really useful to us.” It does so by flying through the radiation belts and taking measurements.

“There are also proposals to put radiation detectors on every commercial spacecraft,” he said. “It will certainly help us get a much better and bigger picture of what’s happening in the universe. We now have tools to use all this data to improve predictions. ”

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Citation: Space researchers build a signal system to warn of dangerous solar storms, retrieved from https://phys.org/news/2025-01 on January 27, 2025.

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