Scientists explain why Myanmar’s earthquake was so fatal

Experts say the catastrophic earthquake in Myanmar on Friday is most likely to hit the country in disaster modelling, suggesting that thousands of people could have died in decades.

A shallow 7.7 magnitude earthquake northwest of Sagar in the central Myanmar city of Myanmar caused a red warning about deaths and economic losses related to tremors, according to an automated assessment by the USGS.

“There is a high possibility of high casualties and massive damage, and the disaster is likely to be widespread,” he said, finding the epicenter near Mandalay city in central Myanmar.

A Myanmar judge said the number of people killed exceeded 1,000 and more than 2,000 were injured on Saturday morning.

However, the USGS analysis stated there is a 35% chance that the possible deaths could range from 10,000 to 100,000.

The USGS has warned that financial damage could potentially exceed Myanmar’s GDP, offering a similar possibility that it could result in tens of millions of dollars in total.

Weak infrastructure complicates rescue operations in isolated military-controlled states where rescue services and health care systems have already been destroyed by the 2021 military coup.

Dangerous negligence

“It is probably the largest earthquake on mainland Myanmar,” said Bill McGuire, professor emeritus of geophysics and climate risks at University College London (UCL).

A 6.7 magnitude aftershock hit a hit after the first few minutes, and McGuire warned that “we can expect more.”

Rebeccabell, a tectonics expert at Imperial College (ICL) in London, suggested it was a “strike slip” on the left and right sides of the Sagar disorder.

This is where the Indian tectonic plates to the west meet the Sunda plates, which form most of Southeast Asia. This is a scale-and-moving disorder similar to the San Andreas fault in California.

“The Saga faults are very long, 1,200 kilometres (745 miles) and very straight,” Bell said. “The straight nature means that earthquakes can burst over a wide area. The larger the area of ​​the fault, the larger the earthquake.”

Earthquakes in such cases can be “particularly destructive,” Bell adds, and because earthquakes occur at shallow depths, the seismic energy almost dissipated by the time it reached the above-mentioned populated areas.

It causes “many shaking on the surface,” Bell said.

Building a boom

Myanmar has suffered strong earthquakes in the past.

There have been more than 14 earthquakes over six in the past century, including a magnitude 6.8 earthquake near Mandalay in 1956, more than 14 earthquakes, sized six, said Brian Baptist, seismologist at the British Geological Survey.

Ian Watkinson of the Department of Earth Sciences at Royal Holloway University in London said that what has changed over the past few decades is the “boom of skyscrapers built from reinforced concrete.”

Myanmar has been hit by years of conflict, with low levels of architectural design enforcement.

“Critical, during all previous magnitude 7 earthquakes along the Sagar fault, Myanmar was relatively undeveloped, with mainly low-rise timber framed buildings and brick religious monuments,” Watkinson said.

“Today’s earthquake is the first test of modern Myanmar’s infrastructure against large, shallow focus earthquakes near major cities.”

Baptier said at least 2.8 million people in Myanmar were in the Hardhit area, mostly made from buildings built on earthquake-sway-swaying vulnerable buildings and unreinforced brick masonry.

“The usual mantra is, ‘Earthquakes should not kill people, they will collapse the infrastructure,” said Iran Kelman, UCL disaster reduction expert.

“The government is in charge of planning regulations and building codes, and this disaster exposes the Burma/Myanmar governments that failed long before the earthquake.

High-rise building check

The strong trembling also shook the neighboring Thailand. There, a 30-storey skyscraper under construction reduced to dusty concrete piles, trapping workers in debris.

Christian Malagachuki Taipe, Faculty of Private and Environmental Engineering at ICL, said that despite being about 1,000 km (620 miles) from the Myanmar epicenter, the nature of Bangkok’s ground contributed to the impact on the city.

“Bangkok is far from active faults, but its soft soil amplifies the shaking,” he said. “This will affect tall buildings, especially at the time of a distant earthquake.”

Malaga-Chuquitaype’s construction technology in favor of “flat slabs” is “problematic design” that the floor is held only by columns without strengthening the beams, like a table supported by legs alone.

He said the first video analysis of Bangkok’s collapsed tower blocks suggested that this type of construction technology was used.

“It works poorly during earthquakes and often fails with a brittle, sudden (almost explosive) attitude,” he said.

Roberto Gentil, a UCL catastrophe risk modeling expert, said the “dramatic collapse” of the Bangkok Tower Block means “that “other tall buildings in the city may require thorough evaluation.”

Bangkok city officials said they would deploy more than 100 engineers to inspect the building for safety after receiving reports of more than 2,000 damage.

©2025 AFP