Rising temperatures threaten coral reefs – pinpointing where conservation action is most needed

New science from the Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) maps coral reefs across the Western Indian Ocean, revealing unexpected pockets of climate resilience that could offer hope for conservation efforts in the region I did.

By combining AI models and data from 1,000 field studies, researchers identified coral reefs that may be better able to withstand climate change than previously feared, making them the ocean’s most biodiverse ecosystems. This opens a new door for protecting the

“Past models were often coarse and relied on just a few temperature variables,” said Dr. Tim McClanahan, WCS Global Ocean Program Scientific Director. “Our model takes full advantage of the power of global environmental mapping and machine learning to create new possibilities for finding resilient coral reefs that need protection.”

By considering many environmental variables at a smaller scale, the new model yields a more detailed and diverse outlook for coral reefs, compared to the more stringent forecasts of previous models, such as the 2023 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. Challenge your predictions. Under a 1.5°C warming threshold, 70% of coral reefs are projected to experience only modest declines (less than 5%) in coral cover and species diversity by 2050.

But if emissions continue unmitigated, coral area could decline by 40% by mid-century. WCS’ new model identifies about 5% of coral reefs that could benefit from changing conditions, with potential refugia where corals could continue to thrive despite warming. suggests.

“As a young career scientist, I need to understand the relationship between climate change, human activities, and local conditions in order to inform targeted local conservation measures to protect and sustain coral reefs in a changing world. Understanding the complex interactions is critical,” added co-author Maxwell Azari. This researcher and Global Fishing Watch Fisheries Analyst.

The study, published in the journal Ecosphere, is titled “Predicting coral reef diversity in the Western Indian Ocean using fine-scale modeling,” and combines these predictions with coral cover data from previous studies to help researchers is enabling us to map the resilience of corals across the Western Indian Ocean.

“Our research shows that around 30% of the world’s coral reefs can withstand a 1.5°C temperature increase,” Dr McClanahan added. “However, that threshold has passed, and in a scenario without urgent carbon reductions, only 15% of coral reefs are expected to show resilience. This means we should expect more extreme model scenarios to emerge unless we reduce the

As the world faces rising temperatures and accelerating ocean heatwaves, this study shows that there is an urgent need to significantly reduce greenhouse gases globally to limit even more extreme scenarios. is emphasized. The researchers will also deploy their modeling techniques to help scientists around the world better map biodiversity and protect other ecosystems that are similarly at risk from climate change. I hope that they will improve their efforts to do so.