Research warns that carbon dioxide rate of rise is ‘incompatible’ with 1.5℃ target

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Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is increasing at a rate that is incompatible with keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius (34.7 degrees Fahrenheit), a Japan Meteorological Agency study warns.
Concentrations of major greenhouse gases rose in 2024 at the fastest annual level in a long-term record of measurements at Hawaii’s Mauna Loa, which dates back to 1958, exceeding the National Weather Service’s forecast for the same year.
The 3.58ppm increase recorded at Mauna Loa is higher than the 2.84ppm predicted by the Met Office, and satellite measurements also show significant increases worldwide.
The Japan Meteorological Agency said the increase was due to the burning of fossil fuels, natural “sinks” such as tropical forests that absorb less carbon dioxide, and record high emissions from wildfires.
The reduction in carbon absorbed by forests and wildfires was caused by El Niño in the Pacific and hotter conditions associated with climate change, which push up global temperatures.
The Japan Meteorological Agency, which has been making carbon dioxide forecasts since 2016, predicts that the rise between 2024 and 2025 will be less extreme than last year, at about 2.26 ppm.
But even this modest increase would be too fast to keep up with the trajectory set by the United Nations’ climate change agency, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Temperatures will remain below 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming from pre-industrial levels, with little or no overshoot. the Japan Meteorological Agency warned.
The IPCC also has a pathway for temperatures to temporarily exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius for several decades, then fall below the threshold by the end of the century.
But we will need to rely more on technologies and approaches, such as planting forests, that lower overall levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
Continuing efforts to prevent global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels is a key commitment of the global Paris Agreement, agreed by countries in 2015 to avert the most dangerous effects of climate change. There is one.
Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere traps heat, and higher concentrations of the gas trap more heat, raising global temperatures over time and increasing sea levels, more extreme droughts, storms, floods, wildlife and important natural habitats. It causes aggravating effects such as damage to the system.
According to IPCC calculations, in order to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide must already slow to an annual increase of 1.8 ppm in this decade, after which it will stop and begin to decline. necessary, the Japan Meteorological Agency announced. said the office.
However, according to Professor Richard Betts of the Japan Meteorological Agency, who is leading the preparation of the forecast, the average increase over the past 10 years has been around 2.5 parts per million.
“Last week we confirmed that 2024 will be the warmest year on record, with average annual temperatures exceeding pre-industrial levels by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius for the first time,” he said.
“This does not mean we will fail to meet the Paris Agreement targets, but this will require us to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming over a long period of time, and 2025 could be a slightly cooler year. The long-term warming trend will continue due to the increase in carbon dioxide still accumulating in the atmosphere. ”
He said the switch from El Niño to its opposite, La Niña (which creates cooler, wetter conditions, especially in the tropics) would cause forests and other natural systems to absorb more carbon than they did last year, leading to an increase in carbon levels. He said this means that the economy will temporarily slow down. carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
“But to stop global warming, the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere must stop completely and then begin to decline.
“Large and rapid emissions cuts could limit the extent of global warming beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius, but this will require urgent international action,” he said.
2025 dpa GmbH. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.
Citation: Rate of carbon dioxide rise ‘incompatible’ with 1.5°C target, study warns (18 January 2025) https://phys.org/news/2025-01-carbon-dioxyde-incompatibility-15c Retrieved January 18, 2025 from.html
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