Research emigrates as a danger factor for earthquakes and identifies the quality of houses.

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Most of the earthquakes collide into the fire circle. This is a volcanic string and structural activity that wraps the Pacific coastline. However, when an earthquake strikes, the area that experiences the strongest shaking is not always the largest damage.
In the fall of 1999, it caused a large -scale damage in Taiwan and adopted a large -scale cheach earthquake that killed more than 2,400 people. The distribution of injury continued in an uneven pattern. The death of the earthquake concentrated on the suburbs and outer fringes of those cities, not the central cities with a large population. A similar pattern has occurred after the earthquake in China, Chile and Nepal.
More than 20 years later, researchers at the University of Washington have identified the hidden factors behind immigrants called suburban syndrome. Small rural community workers often move outside the city. Move to the outside of the city. This provides a greater economic opportunity, but has low quality houses that are likely to cause significant damage during an earthquake. When immigrants come from low -income or tribal villages, the risk increases further.
Survey results suggest that emergency management organizations should pay more attention to migration and housing quality when developing disaster relief and response plans.
UW NEWS is how the transition under the effects of disasters amplifies the migration in order to discuss TZU-HSIN KAREN CHEN, an assistant professor in environmental and occupational hygiene science and urban planning. And we discussed what US officials could do. Learn from a disaster in Taiwan.
Your research on this study is based on an existing model that evaluates the risk of earthquakes by considering the movement patterns and the vulnerable group movements. What are the existing models missed, and why is it important to fill those gaps?
This risk evaluation model is used internationally and in the United States by many organizations. For example, Fema uses a similar risk model to evaluate a group that has been exposed to dangerous, vulnerabilities, and potential disasters. They usually make geographically comprehensive risks in states and counties, identify potential areas that have a potential impact, and produce preparation plans.
In the United States, temporary domestic immigrants and unwritten immigrants do not always formally register in government systems. One of the general reasons is the fear of expulsion or other legal impact. Therefore, if government agencies such as FEMA assign resources to prepare or recover the disaster, if they depend on registered population data, the required support in a specific field may be underestimated.
In Taiwan, our survey case, many immigrant workers who move from rural areas to urban areas do not update registered houses. They still have registered in their hometown like tribes. It doesn’t make sense to re -register because you may have multiple jobs within a year in a different place.
In order to minimize the cost, some workers are looking for as low as possible, and their rental housing may not be officially registered. These may have an unofficial housing structure, such as a metal floor added on a concrete building that does not comply with safety regulations. This process is helpful in reducing living expenses, but may remain vulnerable to disasters.
How did you start this research?
I share my personal story, but I would like to recognize my co -author for many years of risk evaluation. For me, it started in 2010 when I volunteered in a Taiwanese tribe area where I teach computer skills. This provided a greater lesson than what I taught. Teenager often moved from tribal area to nearby cities and learned how to work in construction during the off -clap season. These jobs are paid more than farm work, but they are very physically demanding and often lack the protection of workers such as employment security and health insurance. Seeing it puts seeds in my heart.
When I was a master’s course student, the Taiwanese National Earthquake Center and Academia Shinica teams were working on the risk of key earthquakes using exposure, vulnerabilities, and hazard frameworks. They have already published basic risks, and have contacted me and developed research expanded by incorporating spatial statistics. This collaboration eventually evolved into research on this paper.
COVID-19 pandemic also shaped this research. I came across news about how immigration workers are stuck in the fringe area of ​​Indian cities. Because of the blockade, they could not continue their work, and the crowded living conditions left a greater risk among the pandemic. I started wondering: How can I move from a pure statistical model to something more meaningful? How can I bring a transition to the center of the discussion?
The last push came from a colleague’s work in UW. I noticed an initiative for students who were not documented, and research efforts on the fairness of environmental justice and health. For example, research on the health of immigrant workers in Diana Ceballos, my co -author, was particularly motivated. I read and write back and forth to improve the framing and discussion of this paper.
How did you incorporate the migration data into a larger earthquake risk model, and what did you find?
At the time of the CHI-CHI earthquake in the late 1990s, there was no detailed migration data. Today, New Research uses a mobile phone signal to track people, but no such data was used at that time. Therefore, we adopt the radiation model, which is widely used to predict human movement, to estimate the flow of transition, and as a new method to estimate immigration from low -income and tribal areas. I used it. This provided new variables to incorporate a big risk model.
Most of our surveys are logically supported, in the logical, more likely to have more deaths when the ground movement is strong. It is a very simple way of thinking about how a disaster will occur. But that’s not just a physical story. It has also been confirmed that there are more deaths in low -income areas. Income is a known danger factor in vulnerability theory. The unique point of this study was that the increase in mobile flow would lead to an increase in deaths, and it turned out to be true.
Please tell me about the migration model. What is it estimated?
The radiation model was applied and adapted to measure various mobile groups. The basic idea of ​​the radiation model comes from a simple model called a gravity model. In connection with this, gravity refers to the idea that a large group of people in the nearby community is “pulling”. This model assumes that the number of people who want to move to a nearby city depends on the population scale of those cities. Large cities tend to attract more people.
If the distance is too far, it costs too much to move, so the model will be less immigrant. However, if the city is close or even far away, it will be a more attractive destination and the flow of movement will increase.
The radiation model is built based on these principles and adds another layer. We are considering competitors on the way. In other words, the flow of movement can be affected by other cities and opportunities between the starting point and the destination.
At first glance, it is clear that if a disaster occurs, there are more people, which will lead to higher deaths in specific areas. Is it a major driver or other factors?
Logically, if there are more people and the percentage of dead is equal, more people will die at specific events. However, it turned out that it was not just the population. There are two additional factors. If immigrant workers come from low -income areas, or from tribal areas, their factors contribute significantly to higher deaths in their migration.
Our hypothesis is that it is about the safety of the house. Immigration workers tend to move to cities, and if the city is more expensive, wealthy workers may be able to secure a house that provides better protection for disasters. However, workers in tribes and low -income areas tend to settle in the fringe zone of cities that are more vulnerable to earthquakes because affordable housing options do not meet safety standards.
Why did you choose to study this earthquake in 1999?
The research team, who invited me to work on this project, was interested in the Chichi earthquake because it was one of the most miserable Taiwanese history. Even after 20 years, there are still meetings focusing on the Chi-Chi earthquake, where domestic and international researchers speak about it.
How much will your survey results apply? For example, will it help to better understand the dangers in areas where other earthquakes are likely to occur, such as the northwest of the Pacific Ocean?
It is important to consider this risk evaluation as a tool for future danger. If the next earthquake occurs, the immigration community will probably increase the impact if the housing safety policy is not improved.
I think that mobile components are universally important outside of Taiwan. There was always a structural dilemma of Paradox and disaster governance. Immigrants are often invisible, so they are hardly struggling. But being able to see them can sometimes lead to exclusion and discrimination. This model represents immigrants in a geographical sense, rather than identifying all people through government monitoring, and can address this task. While immigration groups, the protection of anonymity may help this model guarantee that their needs are considered in housing safety and resource allocation.
Provided by Washington University
Quotation: Research emigrates as a risk factor for earthquake deaths, identifies the quality of houses (2025, February 3) https://phys.org/news/2025-02- Migration-Housing-Factors-factors-earthquake.htmll
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