Replacing gas vehicles with electric vehicles can prevent new cases of childhood asthma

Up to a third of all new asthma cases each year are attributed to harmful air pollutants released by gas-powered vehicles.

To address this, a recent study found that replacing about half of all gas-powered vehicles with electric vehicles is sufficient to minimize cases of childhood asthma associated with contamination from vehicle exhaust.

As a researcher studying the intersections of transportation, climate change and public health, I wanted to understand whether selling electric vehicles has an impact on human health. Given the growth of the U.S. electric vehicle market, we investigated the impact of this growth on population health.

We chose childhood asthma as a proxy because of its widespread impact on the population. In 2019, about 5 million American children suffered from asthma. This statistic hasn’t changed much since then.

Numerous studies have shown that exposure to air pollutants such as nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter released from the tails of gas-powered cars when burning fossil fuels is associated with an increased risk of developing asthma. Our study is based on this by examining the number of gas-powered and electric vehicles on roads and the number of new childhood asthma cases each year.

Vehicle sales survey

Public data on pediatric asthma from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the US was used. Next, we constructed a disability burden model to isolate new cases of childhood asthma associated with traffic-related air pollution. We included data collected between 2013 and 2019 from all of the US 50 and the District of Columbia.

It has been found that there is one new case of pediatric asthma for each of the 1,000 new gas-powered vehicles on sale. Our research suggests that replacing about 21% of these sales with electric vehicles would be sufficient to stop the rise in asthma rates caused by new vehicle sales. However, this number will vary depending on conditions and various factors, such as population density and the number of existing gas-powered vehicles on the road.

For example, replacing just 7% of gas car sales with electric vehicles in some states may be enough to stop the rise in asthma rates caused by new vehicle sales. However, in other states, 42% of new car sales had to be electric vehicles to make an impact.

State with high population density and a large portion of older gas-powered vehicles on the roads will see the biggest health promotion from the switch to electric vehicles.

Our findings show that we already see the measurable public health benefits seen in the US from the rise in electric vehicles on the roads. This impact is profound in states with zero emissions vehicle programs, as 63% of all new electric vehicles were sold in states with these duties between 2013 and 2019.

In 2021 (at the time of this study), there were rules that encourage 10 American states to promote electric vehicles, including California, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maryland, Maine, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Vermont.

Our findings underscore the urgent need for policies to accelerate the replacement of old fossil-powered vehicles with electric vehicles. It is also important for policymakers to find ways to make electric vehicles more accessible to low-income households, as they are disproportionately affected by traffic-related air pollution.

Not the only solution

We don’t want our readers to assume that putting more electric vehicles on the road is the only solution to improve children’s health.

First, it is important to note that a decrease in childhood asthma rates only manifests when electric vehicles are sold as alternatives to gas-powered vehicles. This means that if people buy an electric car as a second car, they won’t be linked to the same health benefits.

Second, electric vehicles, like other vehicles, contribute to the emission of air pollution in other ways. This is why our research has not pointed out that all gas-powered cars will be completely replaced by electric vehicles for public health.

A fleet share of 36% to 77% of electric vehicles should minimize the burden of asthma to reduce the amount of nitrogen dioxide released from gas-powered vehicles, but this does not eliminate all the contaminants produced by the vehicle.

For example, brake wear, tire wear, and particulate matter from road dust are all associated with adverse health effects, such as respiratory and cardiovascular disease. Plug-in hybrids can work both gas and electricity, so the actual reduction in pollution also depends on driving behavior.

Alternative transport forms remain important to reduce the total number of vehicles on the road and ultimately improve public health.

For an electric vehicle to be truly beneficial, it is also important to ensure that the power needed to charge the battery comes from a clean source. If electricity comes from coal or other fossil fuel-based sources, we are simply moving pollution from the city centre to the community living near the power plant.

Other important limitations in electric vehicle technology include recycling of batteries, social fraud in the acquisition of raw materials for the production of batteries, and restrictions on repair rights.

The bottom row is that while electric vehicles are needed to move away from fossil fuel-based vehicles, they are not the whole solution. To improve air quality and public health, we need to further promote and invest in public transport and bicycle infrastructure.

This article will be republished from the conversation under a Creative Commons license. Please read the original article.