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New calculations from NASA show that the chances of an asteroid that can wipe out cities will hit Earth in eight years have been reduced from half to about 1.5%.
A decline in odds was widely anticipated by the global astronomical community. This is widely predicted that the chances of an asteroid hitting Earth on December 22, 2032 will fall to zero.
For over 24 hours, asteroids have been the most likely to strike Earth with such large space rocks in modern predictions.
An updated calculation posted by NASA late Wednesday said the probability of a direct hit has dropped to 1.5%.
The European Space Agency’s individual calculations plummeted to 1.38%.
Richard Moisle, director of the ESA’s Planetary Defense Agency, told AFP that this was expected as an “uncertainty region” when asteroids begin to “slid down” from Earth.
The chance percentage, he added, is likely to “wiggle a little up and down” now expected to be below 1% soon.
It is not clear whether that will happen before James Webb’s space telescope transforms its powerful gaze into an asteroid next month.
According to NASA, there is still a 0.8% chance that an asteroid will hit the moon.
The asteroid known as the 2024 YR4 was first detected in December.
It is estimated to be about 40-90 meters wide (130-300 feet), and while it does not cause global catastrophe, it can cause significant destruction in the city.
It was the 2004 Apophis that asteroids over 30 meters in size that pose such a significant risk, with a 2.7% chance of hitting Earth in 2029.
©2025 AFP
Quote: The odds that an asteroid would collide with Earth in 2032 (February 20, 2025) were found on February 20, 2025 https://phys.org/news/2025-02-02-02-02-02-02-02- Retrieved from 02-odds-plummet-asteroid-earth.html
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