Only 15 countries have met the deadline for the latest Paris Agreement. Are you serious about tackling climate change?

The country’s latest deadline has passed to submit plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that drive climate change. Currently, I have only met in 15 countries. It currently consists of less than 8% of the 194 parties registered to the Paris Agreement, requiring that new proposals be submitted to eliminate emissions every five years.

These plans, known nationwide determined contributions, or known as NDCs, outline whether countries can help average global temperature rises above 1.5°C or up to 2°C above pre-industrial levels. This includes reducing emissions by adapting to the heating world by generating more energy from wind and sunlight, and restoring wetlands as protection against more severe flooding and wildfires.

Each new NDC should outline a more severe emission cut than the last NDC. It also needs to show how countries can try to mitigate climate change over the next decade. The system is designed to gradually strengthen (or “ratchet-up”) global efforts to combat climate change.

The February 2025 deadline for submitting the NDC was set nine months before COP30, the next UN Climate Change Conference held in Belem, Brazil.

Without a comprehensive set of NDCs for the nation to compare themselves, there will be less pressure on negotiators to raise national ambitions. It is also more difficult to assess the amounts needed for a particular country to decarbonize climate change, decarbonize and adapt to the amount available.

While countries can continue to file NDCs, the low compliance rates so far suggest a lack of urgency in the disease to avoid the worst climate outcomes of this century.

Who submitted it?

The 15 countries that filed the NDC on time include the United Arab Emirates, the UK, Switzerland, Ecuador, and many smaller states such as Andorra and the Marshall Islands.

COP30 host Brazil has submitted a pledge to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 59-67% by 2035 compared to 2005 levels. This increased from previous commitments, reducing by 37% by 2025 and 43% by 2030. Unfortunately, Brazil has not been on track to meet its 2025 target, setting a recent emissions baseline and reducing will be modest otherwise.

Japan aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 60% in 2035 and 73% in 2040 compared to the level in 2013. Japan’s previous goal was a 46% reduction by 2030. This shows how the ratchet system works.

The UK NDC, which promises to reduce all greenhouse gas emissions by at least 81% by 2035 compared to the 1990 levels, has been described by independent scientists as “compatible” limiting global heating to 1.5°C.

The US had submitted a plan to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions below 2005 levels by 61-66% by 2035. But this is a questionable commitment of one of the world’s biggest polluters, as before Donald Trump pulled the US out of the Paris Agreement (second time).

Who didn’t submit it?

Some of the world’s largest emitters were unable to submit new NDCs, including China, India and Russia.

India has pledged to reduce emissions by 2030, which is 35% below 2005 levels by signing the Paris Agreement. All subsequent NDCs have been rated “inadequate” by independent scientists. India’s recent national budget announcement provided slight additional funding for climate mitigation and adaptation measures.

China also made a major promise in 2015 with the aim of reducing Co2 emissions by 65% ​​from its baseline in 2005 to 2030. However, China has been responsible for more than 90% of global CO2 emissions growth since the Paris Agreement was signed. China and the US also stopped formal debate on climate change in 2022. Increased economic competition between these two countries will result in restrictions on export controls and tariffs, making green technologies such as electric vehicles expensive, and slowing down the transition from fossil fuels.

Russia joined the Paris Agreement in 2019. The first NDC was labelled “very inadequate” by scientists, and the 2020 follow-up did not include an increase in targets. Russia is maximizing extraction of resources such as oil, gas and minerals, and the Arctic 2035 strategy includes plans to sink several wells on the continental shelf.

With the US’s 2025 NDC in Limbo, President Trump is focusing on mineral reserves in Ukraine and Greenland, further strengthening oil production and cutting funds for international climate research.

The European Union may have established itself as a leader in global climate action, instead of US involvement. However, the EU, which submits NDCs as a bloc alongside individual countries submissions, also failed to submit on time.

Global Shift

The failure of most countries to submit new emissions plans suggests that the era of cooperation on climate change is over. The largest and most powerful of these countries have a military and diplomatic presence around the world, particularly in countries with large reserves of minerals important for electric vehicles and other technologies associated with decarbonization. The lack of NDCs from these countries could be not a problem of centred on green ambitions, but an attempt to hide the planned exploitation of other countries’ resources.

If the country continues to fail to submit an enhanced NDC or withdraws completely from its commitment, scientists warn that global heating could reach a catastrophic 4.4°C by 2100. This scenario envisages the continuous, unabated use of fossil fuels with little consideration of climate.

In a more optimistic scenario, countries could limit warming to 1.8°C by 2100. This requires global cooperation and heavy investment in green technology, and requires a transition to zero emissions by the middle of the century. This is a process that requires everyone to include. Simply decarbonisation by leveraging resources and hoarding the most powerful countries put this important target at risk.

The actual results will likely fall somewhere between these two scenarios, depending on the upcoming NDC and how quickly and thoroughly they are implemented. All scenarios envisaged by climate scientists will involve warming that lasts for decades.

However, the effects of this warming differ based on today’s chosen pathway.

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