New Zealand’s climate policy is no longer sufficient to limit warming to 1.5°C. what needs to happen

Credit: NASA/Earth Observatory, CC BY-SA
It’s now official. Last year was the warmest year on record globally, and the first to exceed pre-industrial temperatures by 1.5 degrees Celsius. This does not mean it is too late to limit further warming, but each delay in action increases the ambition needed.
New Zealand is no exception. Current climate policies are no longer making a sufficient contribution to global efforts to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C, according to the Committee on Climate Change’s first review of the country’s 2050 climate targets.
New Zealand’s current 2050 target has two elements. Methane emissions from livestock must be reduced by 24% to 47% below 2017 levels, and emissions of all other greenhouse gases must reach net zero. However, the committee has made three key recommendations to increase ambition:
Target net negative emissions of long-lived gases (carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide) by removing 20 million tons more from the atmosphere than is emitted each year Reduce biogenic methane emissions by at least 35% to 47 % below the higher target range set in 2017 levels, including emissions from international shipping and aviation.
The commission says these changes will bring New Zealand closer to the “net-zero total gas” needed to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.
The review of the 2050 target was the last effort for outgoing founding chairman of the commission, Rod Kerr, who has become a key voice for climate action. In his closing remarks, he said:
“Those who continue to promote the burning of fossil fuels outdoors without permanent carbon capture and storage are, in my view, committing crimes against humanity.”
New Zealand lags behind other countries
The 2050 target is a key element of New Zealand’s climate action plan. Under the Climate Change Response (Zero Carbon) Amendment Act 2019, the commission is responsible for reviewing the 2050 target every five years.
The threshold for recommending change is high. The committee will need to consider nine key areas and find “significant” developments that would justify recommending a different target.
It turns out that three major changes have occurred since the current goals were set in 2019.
1. Global action is ahead of New Zealand.
Other countries’ current policies, commitments and targets are not sufficient to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C, but many countries now have more ambitious targets than New Zealand.
Australia, Japan, the US, Canada, the EU and Ireland have all adopted full net zero targets in 2021. Finland and Germany have set or are considering net negative targets. Several countries with high biogenic methane emissions have full net-zero targets.
2. The scientific understanding of climate change has changed.
Climate impacts are emerging faster and more severely than the scientific community understood when the goal was set in 2019.
3. Shifting the burden to future generations
The increasing risks and impacts of climate change have implications for intergenerational equity. Delaying action transfers costs and risks to future generations.
The commission’s report also examines New Zealand’s reliance on large-scale commercial exotic tree plantations to meet climate targets. This is one reason why the Climate Action Tracker rates New Zealand’s response as woefully inadequate for a 4°C world.
Tree carbon is part of the biosphere and is not stored forever like fossil carbon. As a case in point, Cyclone Gabriel in 2023 (made worse by climate change) damaged forests, farms, and infrastructure, stripping the region of its social license for forestry.
How to set recommended goals
The work of the committee is strictly regulated by law. The report considers four possible ways to share the global 1.5°C target. They are: per capita emissions equality, national capacity, responsibility for historic warming, and the right of all people to sustainable development.
While New Zealand’s current targets do not meet any of these criteria, the commission says the new targets at least meet the “national capacity” criterion and would be achievable and acceptable. But New Zealand will still be contributing two to three times as much global warming this century.
The committee’s assessments are independent of global warming indicators such as GWP100 (the current UN standard). Instead, the commission directly calculated New Zealand’s past and future contribution to temperature rise. Both commonly used historical baselines, 1850 and 1990, yield similar results.
The New Zealand government currently specifically opposes the Commission’s recommendations on biogenic methane. Last year, the government appointed another advisory committee to set out a consistent goal of “no further warming” of the planet from agricultural methane emissions.

This graph shows the contribution of New Zealand’s (1850-2100) emissions to warming under the current 2050 target. Credit: Committee on Climate Change, CC BY-SA
But the committee rejected the idea, ruling it would be inconsistent with the Paris Agreement and New Zealand’s own climate laws, unless New Zealand’s remaining targets were significantly strengthened.
International aviation and shipping emissions
In a quirk of climate diplomacy, international aviation and shipping emissions were left out of the original 2050 target. But, as the committee points out, they undoubtedly contribute to global warming and are subject to the Paris Agreement’s temperature targets.
Other countries are also working in these areas, with the International Civil Aviation and Maritime Organization setting net zero targets for 2050. Air New Zealand and global shipping giant Maersk both support including these emissions in the 2050 target, which the commission judges is achievable under a number of different routes.
New Zealand’s dependence on maritime and air transport is a challenge. The commission estimates that combined emissions from these sectors are 6.7 megatonnes. This is 20% of total CO₂ emissions, which is close to the emissions of all industrial or all passenger vehicles. The aviation industry in particular is planning for growth that, if not addressed, will blow through the 1.5°C carbon budget both in New Zealand and globally.
The committee determined that it was achievable to include these sources in New Zealand’s revised 2050 targets, drawing on the ‘net zero pathway’ prepared by the international aviation and shipping industries. Although these sectors do not necessarily need to participate in emissions trading schemes, the current situation (they are not subject to GST, fuel taxes or carbon levies) is unfair to other sources of economic activity.
Presented by The Conversation
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