New parameterization schemes increase the accuracy of predicting typhoon strength

It is important to continuously improve numerical models and improve our ability to predict typhoon trucks and intensity in order to reduce the loss of human life and damage to property caused by typhoon disasters. Numerical models serve as important tools for typhoon numerical simulation and operational forecasting. Since 1990, the accuracy of typhoon truck prediction using numerical models has gradually improved. However, improvements to intensity predictions have been slower.

Dr. Xiaowei Tan of China’s Weather Service (CMA) published a paper entitled “Typhoon Kompasu (2118) Simulation” with “Improved Physical Parameterization of Planetary Boundary Layers and Clouds” in Atmospheric and Marine Science Letters.

In their research, we introduce a new parametrization scheme of friction velocity at sea level and a fine parameterization scheme of 2 omm clouds into the CMA time behavior model that replaces the original scheme.

Statistical results show that both parameterization schemes improve track and intensity predictions for typhoon Kompasu. We will further explain possible reasons for the impact. Additional analysis revealed that these two schemes influence the timing and magnitude of extreme tropical cyclone intensity values ​​by affecting the evolution of the warm core structure of tropical cyclones.

Furthermore, this study suggests a new approach to assess tropical cyclone prediction capabilities by incorporating errors into model validation into peak intensity timing. This comprehensive assessment method can provide valuable insights, help to further refine numerical models, and ultimately improve your ability to predict and respond to typhoons more effectively.