New model integrates data to improve typhoon forecasts

HAIYAN-I is about to take off for an observation mission. Credit: Liu Zhenyu
Over the past few decades, as typhoons have frequently made landfall in southern China, the Guangzhou Institute of Tropical Oceanography and Meteorology has developed a model called CMA-TRAMS that provides operational forecasting products for typhoons.
After many years of research, scientists have found that the ability of numerical models to predict typhoons can be enhanced by assimilating unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and atmospheric observation data. However, in actual operations, the lack of such data in the oceanic domain limits further improvements in operational typhoon forecasting.
Based on these considerations, the China National Meteorological Observation Center promoted a new generation of operational sounding system called “Beidou”. Compared with traditional sounding balloons, the Beidou system provides more segments of high-level observation data. Combined with data from the new generation UAV HAIYAN-I, the maritime data source for typhoon landfall has been greatly enriched.
Based on this, the CMA-TRAMS team conducted an observational assimilation prediction experiment targeting Typhoon Haikui, which will occur in 2023. The newly assimilated data showed that Hike’s predicted landing spot was much closer to reality. Published in Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters.


Differences between water vapor (unit: g kg−1) and wind (unit: ms−1) (a, e) “Control & Reanalysis” (ERA5) and analytical increments of different groups (b, f) Beidou drops. (c, g) Hokuto. (d, h) drop) (a–d) 850 hPa and (e–h) 500 hPa. Credit: Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters (2024). DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100555
“This experiment is the first attempt to assimilate both Beidou sounding data and UAV data into an operational forecasting system in southern China, and the results suggest it is a good start,” said the study’s corresponding author. said Dr. Sheng Hu, one of them. .
Dr. Xuefen Zhang, another corresponding author, said: “It is critical to accelerate the integration of new observational data into operational prediction models. “We would like to continue conducting such operational assimilation experiments,” he added.
In the future, the CMA-TRAMS team plans to conduct more targeted observations of typhoons in the South China Sea and increase the application of observational data in the assimilation process. Ultimately, we hope to provide higher quality typhoon forecasts for the southern China region.
Further information: Qiushi Wen et al., Joint assimilation experiment of BeiDou radiosonde and drone-dropped radiosonde based on CMA-TRAMS, Atmosphere and Ocean Science Letters (2024). DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100555
Provided by Chinese Academy of Sciences
Citation: New model combines data to improve typhoon forecasts (November 25, 2024) from https://phys.org/news/2024-11-combines-typhoon.html November 25, 2024 get to date
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