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New model can predict ocean heatwaves and extreme ocean acidity months in advance

Prediction skill of MHW, OAX(Ωa), OAX((H+)). Credit: Nature Geoscience (2024). DOI: 10.1038/s41561-024-01593-0

In the 21st century, the Earth’s oceans are becoming warmer and more acidic. This change occurs slowly over the long term, but can also cause short-term local spikes.

These events are like heat waves or days of poor air quality that we experience on land, but only under water. And if they’re bad enough, they can destroy marine ecosystems.

INSTAAR PhD student Samuel Morgen, INSTAAR Director Nicole Lovendusky, and collaborators set their sights on these oceanic polar regions in a new paper published in Nature Geoscience. Researchers outline a method to predict both ocean heatwaves and acute ocean acidity. New models are adept at predicting these events up to a year in advance with varying degrees of certainty depending on location.

Morgen and his colleagues are not the first to develop a model to predict ocean heatwaves, but they are the first to predict ocean acidification. In the past, this research has been hampered by a lack of data. Acidity is much more difficult to measure than temperature. While satellites can accurately measure sea surface temperatures from above, acidity levels can only be measured by collecting physical water samples.

But in recent years, scientists have been hard at work feeding measurements from research cruises into large-scale Earth system models like the one used by Morgen. Much of this research was provided by Morgen’s collaborators at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder.

“In the short term, we are getting to the point where we can use them to understand the evolution of carbon in the ocean,” Morgen said.

Carbon is key to understanding ocean acidity, especially in the 21st century. As global emissions increase, more and more carbon dioxide is leached from the atmosphere into seawater, making it more acidic. Morgen’s model predicts for the first time how large-scale climate patterns affect this effect.

As an example, researchers found that repeated warming events in the central and eastern tropical Pacific known as El Niño appear to be leading to widespread ocean acidification. This effect is particularly noticeable in the eastern Pacific Ocean off the coast of the Americas.

Morgen and his collaborators used a mineral called aragonite as a proxy for ocean acidification. As the acidity increases, the concentration of aragonite decreases. And this change has a direct impact on marine life. Molluscs such as bivalves and snails, as well as corals, rely on aragonite to form their shells and exoskeletons. Without it, they remain unprotected.

“It can affect how the shell grows, how quickly the shell dissolves, and its overall survival,” Morgen explained.

This is just one of the myriad effects ocean acidity has on marine life. Many are still being discovered.

As acute ocean acidification worsens, Morgen hopes his research will pave the way for better predictions and more sustainable management of marine ecosystems.

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“If we can predict these events in advance, we can alert local fisheries managers and potentially change fishing practices,” Morgen explained. “We might change the way we harvest fish to help the ecosystem survive the extreme event.”

Although Morgen’s paper just rolled off the (virtual) press, the researchers actually put the final touches on the model a year ago. Back in November 2023, they produced a forecast for next year predicting widespread ocean heatwaves and ocean acidity.

At first glance, Morgen said, the heat wave predictions appeared to be correct. However, processing the incoming data on acidity takes more time. As new information flows in, researchers revisit the model to further validate it. Ultimately, they want to give decision makers the best tools to predict ocean extremes and reduce their impacts.

Further information: Samuel C. Mogen et al., Extreme multi-month predictions of ocean heatwaves and ocean acidification, Nature Geoscience (2024). DOI: 10.1038/s41561-024-01593-0

Provided by University of Colorado Boulder

Citation: New model can predict ocean heatwaves, extreme ocean acidity months in advance (November 25, 2024) https://phys.org/news/2024-11-marine-extreme-ocean Retrieved November 25, 2024 from -acidity-months.html

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