New insights into Cyclone Way Recovery can help advance predictive models for extreme weather phenomena

UMass Dartmouth School for Marine Science & Technology (SMAST) Ph.D. Student Siddhanth Kelharkal is shedding new light on the recovery of the ocean thermal structure after the cyclone passes. This is a marine region that remains largely unexplored due to a lack of direct ship observations. This study will enhance understanding of how the ocean recovers after cyclones, which are essential for improving climate models and predicting extreme weather events.

This study has been published in the Journal Geophysical Research Book.

As part of an international research collaboration in the Arabian Sea, Kelharkal and his co-authors Ankita Kannado, Alex Kinsella, Amit Tandon, Janet Sprintor and Craig M. Lee used data collected from R/V Thompson during the 2023 field campaign to investigate the aftermath of Cyclone Biparjo.

Their findings reveal that the slow movement of the cyclone, coupled with the monsoon wind, caused a small-scale marine process that produced asymmetric temperature, salinity and velocity structures within the cyclone awakening. This is the first time such measurements have been made in the Arabian Sea, and although unusually warm in recent years, it is rarely less studied than many oceans around the world.

These observations were created as part of the “Enhance Knowledge of the Arabian Marine Marine Environment Through Science and Advanced Training (EKAMSAT)” programme focusing on the acquisition of modern marine and atmospheric datasets that are considered important for improving the prediction skills of modern marine model models and addressing vessel safety at sea.

“Our research shows that these small-scale marine processes, commonly referred to as submesoscale processes, play an important role in accelerating the recovery of post-cyclone ocean thermal structures,” says Kerhalkar. “This has a major impact on marine heat transport, nutritional distribution and weather predictability, particularly in monsoon predictions.”

This study highlights that these marine processes can potentially affect atmospheric heat exchange and overall climate dynamics, providing valuable insights to improve predictions of storm behavior and monsoon variability. As the Indian monsoon directly affects almost a third of the world’s population, this study highlights the importance of understanding these mechanisms for climate prediction and disaster preparation.

Amit Tandon, co-author and professor of mechanical engineering and estuary and marine science at UMass Dartmouth, said: “Siddhanth’s research provides new observational evidence to help refine prediction models for extreme weather phenomena.”