Israeli citizens prefer faster earthquake warnings – even when accuracy is low, research reveals
Location map showing population density and major cities (blue dots). The active fault (red line) is after Sharon et al. (2020). DST – Dead Sea Transfold, CF – Carmel Fault, R-Roam Fault, Y – Yamouneh Fault. Red Star marks the location of the MW 6.2, 1927 Jericho earthquake (Zohar and Marco 2012). The orange circle represents the earthquakes that occur between 2010 and 2020 with MW > 3. The green circle represents a subset of events that could be considered a potential alert for a magnitude threshold of M≥4.2. The brown circle represents a subset of events that could be considered a potential alert for a threshold of magnitude 4.5. (See the proposed alert approach in the Israel section of NOF and Kurzon (2021) for more information). Credit: Natural Disasters (2025). doi:10.1007/s11069-025-07155-w
Israel’s national earthquake warning system, Truaa, operated in 2022, has deployed the country alongside other developed countries that use early warning systems for earthquakes. However, one of the main challenges of such systems is to balance speed and accuracy. A quick warning can save lives, but if it is based on limited data, it can be wrong, leading to false alarms and unnecessary injuries.
A new study conducted by Dr. Yonat Zwebner, a consumer behavior expert at Allison Business School at Reichman University, collaborated with Dr. Ran Noff and Dr. Gonnie Bilan of the Israel Geological Survey to examine this trade-off between urgency and accuracy. This study conducted a large-scale survey to analyze statistical data, assess the likelihood of injury in the event of warnings, and measure public attitudes regarding the issue. This study has been published in the journal Natural Hazards.
This study addresses the key challenges faced by earthquake warning systems. At the first moment after an earthquake, there is a great uncertainty in its size, which gradually decreases over time. Therefore, it is important to balance the right balance between issuing warnings and the urgency of ensuring accuracy.
The main findings indicate that urgency is a preferred priority when weighing urgency against need. There is a clear advantage to providing warnings as soon as possible, even if it can be caused by an earthquake that does not ultimately cause serious damage. Injuries caused by responses to early warnings were found to be negligible compared to earthquake damage without early warnings.
Israeli citizens also support the fast warnings from investigations conducted following the 2023 earthquake in Turkey, felt in many parts of Israel.
Furthermore, this study recommends considering reducing the magnitude threshold for earthquake warnings. Lowering this threshold will increase the response time, ensure timely alerts while minimizing the risk of injury, and significantly increase the chances of unnecessary warnings.
Dr. Zwebber said, “This study presents immediate policy recommendations to consider lowering the magnitude threshold for earthquake alerts, giving the public more time to respond. It also highlights the importance of investing in public training and warm-up exercises, increasing the effectiveness of the response and preventing “vigilance fatigue.”
Details: Ran novitsky nof et al, Trade-off between urgency and unnecessary earthquake warning: Considering public response factors, natural disasters (2025). doi:10.1007/s11069-025-07155-w
Provided by Reichmann University
Quote: Israeli citizens prefer to make earthquake warnings faster. Even if the accuracy is low, starting from March 25th, 2025, https://phys.org/news/2025-03-Israel faster–faster-earthquake-accuracy- reveals.html.html.
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