Is Tampa prepared for the devastating effects of Hurricane Milton?

As Hurricane Milton hurtles toward central Florida, disaster recovery experts at Northeastern University say residents should expect extensive damage from the storm and its high waves, especially if Tampa is hit. states.

“Tampa is the most vulnerable place,” says Q. Jim Chen, professor of civil and environmental engineering and marine and environmental science at Northeastern University.

Chen explained that because of the wide continental shelf off Florida’s west coast, winds can easily pick up shallow water and push it into Tampa Bay, which is also shallow, only worsening wave heights.

Additionally, the developed coastline around the bay (3.5 million people live in the Tampa metropolitan area) means much of the infrastructure is susceptible to tsunami impacts.

It also doesn’t help that recent damage from Hurricane Helen has not been repaired.

“If we don’t remove that fragment, it becomes even more dangerous. It’s actually like a weapon,” Chen said. “Missiles will be moving everywhere.”

The amount of misinformation and disinformation surrounding Helen’s response also puts residents at risk, said Daniel Aldrich, a professor of political science and public policy at Northeastern University and co-director of the university’s Institute for Global Resilience. He says he is.

“Right now, there’s an active disinformation campaign against a normally apolitical process. As the process becomes politicized, trust is eroding,” Aldrich said. “This is really a problem because, as FEMA says, as people try to get things done, there are fewer and fewer people who might be able to listen to what’s going on, and therefore Because it means there will be less cooperation in that kind of process.”

Meanwhile, Aldrich’s research shows that multiple “shocks” are occurring more frequently in an area, creating “disaster fatigue” among relief donors, volunteers and others. It’s starting.

“We’re in a polycrisis, which means multiple things are happening at the same time,” Aldrich explains. “Now the same disaster managers, the same evacuees, the same local residents have to deal with the shock.”

The National Hurricane Center said Tuesday that Milton had maximum sustained wind speeds of about 150 mph and was moving across the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico toward the Tampa area. The hurricane was a Category 4 storm.

“While fluctuations in strength are expected, Milton is expected to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane until it makes landfall in Florida,” the hurricane center said in a statement.

The hurricane is expected to make landfall late Wednesday or early Thursday, bringing storm surge 10 to 15 feet high. Meanwhile, the state of Florida urged residents to evacuate and also issued mandatory evacuations for parts of Tampa Bay.

Chen said the country learned lessons from shelters during Hurricane Katrina in 2005, with critical infrastructure such as hospitals, and most notably hurricane shelters, being reinforced with protective barriers. It is said that there is

However, strengthening on a regional scale is more difficult.

This means that homes, roads and bridges along developed, low-lying coastlines are at special risk from storm surge. Older infrastructure is also at greater risk as building codes have been updated since Hurricane Andrew made landfall in 1992.

However, unlike Helen, rainfall issues are not expected to be much of a problem in Milton.

“People still need to be aware of the potential for flooding in low-lying inland areas,” Chen said. “Orlando is far from the coast so flooding is possible, but I don’t think it will be as devastating as Helen’s.”

Chen points out that even if there is a lot of rain, a hurricane will pass through an area relatively quickly. Additionally, Florida is relatively flat, so floodwaters don’t rush down slopes and sweep away everything in their path.

Nevertheless, residents of the state need to be prepared.

“We don’t know exactly where it fell,” Chen said. “But given the path, size and strength of the hurricane, it will be a very destructive hurricane.”