In high emission scenarios, the sea surface of the world is very likely to rise between 0.5 and 1.9 meters by 2100.

Expert judgment is essential through the process of predicting the rise in the sea level. The arrow shows the flow of information from experts (green arrows) and probable projections (blue arrows). Credit: The future of the earth (2024). Doi: 10.1029/2024EF005295
The interdisciplinary team of NTU Singapore and Delft Institute of Technology (TU DELFT) in the Netherlands predicts that the emission rate of global CO2 continues to increase and the sea surface is very likely as a result. I am doing it. It rises between 0.5 and 1.9 meters by 2100. The high -end of this prediction is 90 cm higher than the latest global forecasts of 0.6 to 1.0 meters.
A very highly possible range (90 % of the occurring events) reported by the NTU team in the future of the General Earth complements the sea level rise predictions reported by the United Nations Panel (IPCC) on climate change. I will do it. Probability of projection up to a highly possible range (66 % probability).
Current sea surface projection depends on various methods to model climate processes. Some include well -understood phenomena, such as glacial melting, while others incorporate uncertain events such as the collapse of ice shelves.
As a result, these models generate a variety of projections, making it difficult to estimate the reliable and extreme sea level rise. The ambiguity of projection from various methods has made IPCC a very highly possible range of sea surface projects. This is a valuable standard for managing risks.
In order to overcome this issue and address the current uncertainty of the current sea level rise, NTU researchers have developed a newly improved project method known as the “fusion” approach. This approach combines the strengths of existing models with the opinions of experts to provide clear and reliable pictures of future sea level rise.
Dr. Benjamin Grandy, a senior researcher at NTU’s physician and mathematical school (SPMS), said, “Our new approach is working on important issues in sea surface science: In many cases, we are working on a variety of ways to projected, and by combining these different approaches to a single fusion project, it estimates the uncertainty related to future sea levels, which is very possible. You can quantify high sea levels.
The research team believes that their new methods will fill the important gaps of reliable information and complement the latest reports of IPCC.
Fusion As Proach: Combine the strength of existing models
The interdisciplinary NTU team of physicists and climate scientists created a fusion model by integrating and integrating statistical methods. They used the established prediction data presented in the IPCC’s sixth evaluation report. This simulates potential future scenarios with different emission routes.
Researchers have combined various classes reported in the IPCC report.
In order to explain extreme processes that are not understood, such as sudden changes in the behavior of the ice sheet, both the “moderate trust” and “low confidence” predicted by the evaluation of an expert. I put it in. The weighted system has been applied and the more reliable medium confidence data has been prioritized, including the low confidence predictions to address uncertainties.
This fusion -based forecast suggests that under the low emission scenario, the average sea surface of the world is very likely to rise from 0.3 to 1.0 meters. The potential range of IPCC is predicted that the world’s average sea surface will rise 0.3 to 0.6 meters.
In high emission scenarios, NTU fusion models predict that it is very likely that the global average sea surface will be very likely to rise in 2100 meters and 1.9 meters.
The wider range indicated by the NTU model suggests that the previous estimation may underestimate the extreme results, and has the potential for IPCC under the high emission route. The level of rising to 90 cm at the top of the range may be rising.
The current discharge trend suggests that the world is in a trajectory between a low emission scenario and a high emission scenario.
“Our new possibility prediction emphasizes how much uncertainty about the rise of the sea level,” said Dr. Grandy. “The 1.9 -meter high -end forecast emphasizes that there is a need for a decision to plan an important infrastructure.
“More importantly, these results emphasize the importance of climate relief by reducing greenhouse gas emissions.”
According to Professor Benjamin Horton, a director of the NTU’s Singapore Earth Observatory, “this NTU study represents an important breakthrough in sea level science. By estimating the most extreme results. , Emphasis of the severe effects of the coastal community, and the rising of the ecosystem.
Why a new projection method is important
In order to prepare for climate change, accurate projection of sea level rise is indispensable. The NTU team will provide valuable and practical information to urban planners and governments, and support measures and implement measures to protect vulnerable communities in extreme sea level rise scenarios. I’m thinking.
According to Professor Chew Lock Yue, “NTU School of SPMS,” said, “Completely combine the best available knowledge of sea level information at different reliability levels into a single fusion probability distribution. We have developed a new method to predict.
Co -author, Associate Professor Justin Dauwels, Signal Processing Systems (SPS), Tu Delft Department of MicroElectronics, “New methods to predict the complete uncertainty of future sea level rise, is a forecast of other climate. Can be applied to the coastal flood risk, the infrastructure analysis, and the economic impact, etc.
Details: Benjamin S. Grandey, and the fusion of stochastic projection of sea level rise, the future of the earth (2024). Doi: 10.1029/2024EF005295
Provided by nanyang Technology University
Quoted: Under the high emission scenario (2025, January 27) obtained from https://phys.org/news/2025-01-global-SEEA on January 27, 2025, 0.5 every 2100 years The sea surface of the world that is very likely to rise between ~ 1.9 meters –Meters-HIGH-emissions.html
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