How war and the climate crisis are reshaping the global fertilizer industry

Fertilizers and their interactions with climate change, food security, environmental security, energy and resources. Fertilizers impact climate change, food security and environmental security, while energy and resources impact fertilizers. Climate change, in turn, affects environmental security and food security. Credit: One Earth (2025). DOI: 10.1016/j.oneear.2024.12.009
Fertilizers are essential to global food production, but they also contribute to greenhouse gas emissions. The war in Ukraine has caused supply chain disruptions and price hikes. How can fertilizer production be made more sustainable and resilient to geopolitical crises?
In an article in the journal One Earth, a team from the Research Institute for Sustainability (RIFS) at the GFZ Helmholtz Center for Earth Sciences analyzes this question.
“In 2022, Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine led to soaring fertilizer prices and disrupted supply chains, putting food security in the Global South at risk. This war and other geopolitical crises have disrupted fertilizer supplies. Green hydrogen plays a central role here. It offers the possibility of simultaneously achieving decarbonization of fertilizer production and independence from Russian exports,” explains Rainer Coetzee, lead author of RIFS. Potsdam.
Solving the intertwined problems requires a variety of coordinated measures.
China’s growing influence
Researchers have identified three key factors that have a significant impact on the fertilizer market.
First, the supply structure has changed significantly in recent years, mainly due to China’s increasing influence. The country has emerged as the world’s largest producer of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers and controls a significant share of the world’s mining of phosphate rock for fertilizer production. The Chinese government has taken political measures to regulate supply and prices, one of the objectives of which is to ensure the availability of fertilizer within the country.
Second, the war in Ukraine and growing food insecurity in the Global South have intensified geopolitical competition. The war cut off export routes via the Black Sea, causing fertilizer prices to soar. Therefore, prices remain unpredictable. It particularly affects countries in Latin America and Africa that are dependent on fertilizer imports. But it also poses new challenges for the EU in securing fertilizer production.
Reducing emissions through new technology and improved nutrient use efficiency
The third factor driving change in the fertilizer landscape is the urgent need for decarbonisation. The basis of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers is ammonia, which is produced using nitrogen and hydrogen in an energy-intensive process. Unless produced using green hydrogen from renewable energy sources, production requires large amounts of fossil fuel-based resources. However, the authors estimate that the cost of producing so-called green ammonia using renewable hydrogen is currently more than double that of traditional processes. Therefore, a concept is needed to cover the migration costs.
In addition to technological solutions, decarbonizing the sector also requires reducing the use of synthetic fertilizers.
“To address the twin challenges of climate change and disruption of biogeochemical flows within the Earth system, we need to promote sustainable fertilizer management practices,” Kuitzo explains. Nutrient recycling, the recovery of unused nutrients from agricultural waste, also helps reduce dependence on fertilizer imports.
Similar challenges exist in other supply chains
The transformation of the fertilizer sector has already begun. The United States launched the “Global Fertilizer Challenge” with the aim of alleviating fertilizer supply shortages, and the EU also participated. Brazil has launched a national fertilizer strategy, and Russia is seeking to strengthen its influence in Africa through fertilizer donations.
Researchers argue that these developments have implications beyond the fertilizer sector.
“They also highlight more fundamental questions about how goods and their supply chains are being reshaped in the context of new geopolitical realities,” Cuizzo said.
Developments following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have highlighted the political importance of the fertilizer sector. Its use as a foreign policy tool in pursuit of “soft power” objectives, as well as its embeddedness in the nexus of food, climate change, energy and mineral resources, environment and security, requires close consideration. .
Further information: Rainer Quitzow et al., The nexus of geopolitics, decarbonization and food security poses distinct challenges across the fertilizer supply chain, One Earth (2025). DOI: 10.1016/j.oneear.2024.12.009
Provided by: Research Institute for Sustainability (RIFS) – Potsdam Helmholtz Center
Citation: How war and the climate crisis are reshaping the global fertilizer industry (January 21, 2025) https://phys.org/news/2025-01-war-climate-crisis-reshaping- Retrieved January 21, 2025 from global.html
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