Daniel’s trucks in a storm across the Mediterranean and heavy rain caused in Libya. Wadi delna Reckcomment (blue line) reduced precipitation by several tens of mm, causing flooding. Credits: Moshe Armon, Yuval Shmilovitz, Elad Dente
A new study reveals that the catastrophic 2023 flood in Dhana, Libya, was dramatically strengthened by the major design shortcomings and the collapse of two levee dams, rather than simply the result of extreme rainfall.
Through advanced hydrological modeling and satellite data analysis, researchers found that while Storm Daniel caused heavy rain, the catastrophe was caused by dam failure, resulting in flawed risk assessments and communication.
The findings highlight the urgent need to improve flood mitigation strategies, especially in arid areas where high risk analysis uncertainty poses ever-increasing threats, especially in arid areas, coupled with vulnerable infrastructure.
New joint research by Dr. Moshe Aarmon of the Institute for Geosciences at Hebrew University Jerusalem University, Dr. Yuval Schmirowitz of the Institute for Cooperative Sciences at the Institute of Environmental Sciences at Colorado Boulder University, and Dr. Elad Dente of the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of Environmental Sciences at the Department of
This study challenges the idea that this disaster is an inevitable natural event and shows that inadequate infrastructure planning played a key role in devastation.
This study examines the fatal combination of extreme rainfall from Storm Daniel, a tropical-like cyclone in the Mediterranean, and the structural failures of two embankment dams in Wadi Delna. The researchers used a combination of atmospheric reanalysis, satellite data and hydrological modeling to reconstruct a series of events leading to flooding and destruction.
Their findings reveal that, while the rainfall intensity was high, it was not an unprecedented event. In fact, such storms are expected in the area once every few decades, indicating that this flood is foreseeable.
The results of the hydraulic simulation show the difference in the impact of flooding when comparing actual dam violation floods (right) and virtual scenarios for dams upstream (left) upstream (right) cities. The dark purple color indicates higher flood power. The collapse of two dams led to catastrophic floods, raiding the city widespread and destroying buildings (red dots). Without the dam, the impact of flooding would have been significantly reduced and concentrated in river channels. Damaged building analysis is based on non-habitat reports. Credits: Moshe Armon, Yuval Shmilovitz, Elad Dente
The hydraulic simulations conducted in this study show that if the dam had not been constructed, the impact of flooding on the city of Darna was significantly lower. Instead, the presence of these dams created false sense of security and encouraged construction and settlement in vulnerable areas.
When the dam collapsed, the resulting surge in floods caused serious destruction, wiping out the entire neighborhood and claiming thousands of lives.
“Our findings reveal that Dana’s disaster is not just the result of extreme weather, but also the failure of risk management. Storms like Daniel are unusual, but they are not unprecedented,” the author says.
“If the dams were properly designed or different flood prevention strategies were used and properly communicated to the downstream community, this tragedy could have been significantly reduced. This disaster is a harsh warning that overreliance on infrastructure without proper risk assessment can have catastrophic consequences.”
This study highlights the urgent need for risk assessment and improvements in flood mitigation strategies, especially in arid areas where weather is particularly diverse and extreme events are much larger than in general events.
Researchers highlight that excessive reliance on flood protection infrastructure without proper risk communication can lead to catastrophic obstacles. Instead, they advocate nature-based flood prevention solutions and robust early warning systems to better protect their communities from similar disasters.
This study serves as a reminder of the problems and challenges of relying on infrastructure to prevent flood disasters. Without aggressive risk management, proper maintenance and clear communication with the public, even well-intentioned flood protection measures can cause tragedy.
More details: Moshe Armon, Foreseeable Disaster Anatomy: Lessons from the 2023 dam violation flood in Libya, Libya, Science Advances (2025). doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adu2865. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adu2865
Provided by Hebrew University University of Jerusalem
Quote: How the Failure of Two Dams Amplified the Tragedy of the Dana Flood (March 28, 2025) Retrieved March 28, 2025 from https://phys.org/news/2025-03-03-5-03-5-5-03——-amplied-derna-tradey.html
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