Environment

How many typhoons will hit Taiwan this year?

Statistical seasonal forecast of super typhoon Game and tropical cyclone landfall on Taiwan Island. Credit: Chen Ziqing

Typhoons, with their intense winds, rain, storm surges, and secondary disasters, have long been a key focus for local governments, meteorological bureaus, and research institutes, and all parties need to develop more efficient ways to ensure public safety. We have made every effort to find a way.

A research team led by Professor Kelvin Zhang of the School of Atmospheric Sciences at Sun Yat-sen University (SYSU) provides weather services to China and neighboring regions in mid-May every year, predicting the number of typhoons in different regions each year. .

Recently, the team developed a statistical seasonal prediction model (SYSU model) to predict the number of typhoon landfalls on the island of Taiwan. A related article is published in Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters.

“This simple, open-source, and effective model utilizes four pre-season environmental predictor variables to predict the number of typhoons that will make landfall on Taiwan Island by mid-May each year. Comprehensive Forecast Benefiting from the variable selection method, the model achieves a typhoon accuracy rate of 98% for the period 1979 to 2022,” said Ziqing Chen, first author of the paper.

Research suggests that large-scale weather phenomena such as the Antarctic Oscillation and fluctuations in the subtropical high pressure system in the western Pacific play an important role in steering typhoons toward Taiwan Island. In addition, the Asian summer monsoon and ocean tunnels connecting different ocean basins are also potential factors that influence the occurrence and path of typhoons.

“Being able to predict typhoon landfall months in advance will be beneficial for relevant regions to properly prepare for disaster prevention and mitigation.In addition, open-source models can provide additional references for operational forecasting and scientific research. and promote cooperation between meteorological operations.”

“With continued improvement and promotion of the SYSU model by the research team, it is hoped that more regions will be served in the future,” said Professor Kelvin Chan, corresponding author of the study. states.

Further information: Ziqing Chen et al., Statistical seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone landfall on Taiwan Island, Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters (2024). DOI: 10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100554

Provided by Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters

Quote: How many typhoons will make landfall on Taiwan this year? (October 30, 2024) Retrieved October 30, 2024 from https://phys.org/news/2024-10-typhoons-landfall-taiwan-island-year.html

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