How land use change increases China’s carbon sequestration potential

A research team led by Professor Piao Shilong from the Peking University Carbon Neutrality Research Institute (PKU) has made significant advances in our understanding of how China’s land use changes, such as tree planting, contribute to the country’s carbon emissions reduction efforts. has made great progress.

Their research, published in Nature Communications, explores China’s ability to remove carbon through land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF), a key strategy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. It provides new insights.

As part of its commitments under the Paris Agreement, China has pledged to become carbon neutral by 2060. This means that China needs to balance the amount of carbon dioxide it emits with the amount of carbon dioxide it can remove from the atmosphere. One important way to achieve this balance is through land-based solutions, particularly tree planting, that help capture and store carbon.

However, there is uncertainty about how much carbon China’s forests can actually sequester because of differing estimates and models. This new study helps clarify the role of land use change in China’s carbon budget and provides more accurate predictions for future carbon removal.

Main findings

China’s forests are important carbon sinks: This study shows that China’s ongoing afforestation efforts (tree planting and forest restoration) have turned the country’s land use changes into significant carbon sinks. This confirms that more carbon is absorbed into the land than is emitted. From 1994 to 2018, China’s forests absorbed significant amounts of carbon, consistent with the country’s greenhouse gas inventory. The role of tree planting in carbon neutrality: If China continues its tree-planting efforts at its current pace, forests could offset a significant portion of emissions that are difficult to reduce in other sectors, such as energy and industry. In fact, by continuing to plant trees, China could cover about a third of its hard-to-reduce emissions by 2060. Limits to long-term carbon capture: However, the study also highlights the limits to the carbon sequestration potential of afforestation. When there is less land available for new forests, the rate of carbon removal slows. The study predicts that from mid-century onwards, the carbon capture capacity of forests will begin to decline as land use opportunities decrease. Long-term strategies matter: The study highlights the need for sustainable afforestation efforts beyond 2035, when China’s current afforestation targets are expected to be achieved. This continued expansion is critical to maximizing the carbon removal potential of the LULUCF sector and ensuring China remains on track towards carbon neutrality.

This study provides more accurate estimates of carbon removal in China due to land use change by using an improved modeling approach. The researchers used a version of the OSCAR model specifically tailored for China (OSCAR-China) to better reflect China’s land use changes. This new model integrates direct and indirect impacts of land use change, giving us a clearer picture of how much carbon China’s forests are actually absorbing.

The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers aiming to strengthen China’s carbon sequestration strategy. While tree planting is an important tool to reduce emissions, the study also highlights that China cannot rely solely on land-use change to achieve carbon neutrality goals. Larger-scale emissions reductions will require sustained efforts across all sectors, including energy and industry.

Additionally, this study highlights the importance of improving carbon accounting methods to accurately measure terrestrial carbon sequestration.

The paper, entitled “Future land carbon removal in China consistent with national inventories”, was co-authored by Assistant Researcher He Yue from Peking University and Professors Piao Shilong and Thomas Gasser from IIASA.