Heatwave mortality studies reveal the impacts of climate change and urban risks

A study from the University of Queensland found that mortality in heatwaves has fallen into the spotlight, with human-induced heatwave-related deaths increasing by 20%. Another UQ study reveals that people living in cities are at a higher risk of dying from heat waves than in areas.

Two studies have investigated heatwave mortality rates in Australia, and Nicholas Osborne, Associate Professor of Public Health, hopes the study will help communities and health officials prepare for extreme temperature events. .

“Our results suggest that heat waves with periods of related mortality associated with them occur more frequently than they have done in the past,” Dr. Osborne said.

“These higher mortality rates associated with extreme temperature heat waves are expected to continue, and we hope our research will help our community prepare better for the heat waves.”

Risk of heat waves for urban residents

In one study, UQ researchers analyzed 20 years of temperature and mortality data to determine which regions in Australia are more vulnerable to heat waves via the heat wave vulnerability index .

Patrick Amorthy, a PhD candidate for Public Health, said the study (the biggest study conducted in Australia) was at a higher risk of death during extreme temperature events for urban residents.

“We used index mapping tools to assess how populations work under different scenarios,” Amoatey said.

“We found that the frequently used heatwave vulnerability index in other countries can reliably predict heatwave-related deaths in Australia.

“When analyzing data from over 2,000 suburban areas, we find that urban residents with low incomes, education, diabetes, and limited access to health services are at the highest risk of heat wave-related deaths. Ta.

“This was true for cities in all Australia’s capitals, where 70% of Australia’s population lives.”

“Heat Island Effect”

Researchers found that even during low-intensity heat waves there is a strong association between the death of Australian capital and the heat wave vulnerability index.

“We believe that the ‘heat island effect’ will increase risk in cities because of the ‘heat island effect’ because of the more heat absorbing surfaces, such as roads, buildings, and rail lines,” Amotey said.

“For example, in Greater London, the heatwave vulnerability index can be used to predict increased ambulance callouts and mortality rates during heatwaves, which can be used by health authorities and Australia. It helps with things.

“We already have useful tools and state-based action plans to reduce the impact of heat waves, but the vulnerability index complements this and creates resilience for communities to plan and build resilience. I think it will help you.”

Amoatey said the heatwave was considered a three-day period where the highest temperatures were in the top 5% of the region.

Climate change affects heatwave deaths

In another study, researchers from UQ and Australian National University analyzed the death rates of Victoria’s extreme heat waves and decades of climate data in January 2009, and the climate change over the course of heat-related deaths. We investigated the impact.

An estimated 374 excess deaths occurred in Victoria during the five-day event, with the maximum temperature typically reaching 12-15 degrees above.

“Human-induced climate change increased the death rates associated with excessive heatwaves at the 2009 event by 20%,” Dr. Osborne said.

“These findings were consistent with other studies showing an increase in heat-related deaths due to human-induced climate change.

“From a public health perspective, our research and further research should provide guidance on the need for the appropriate health infrastructure and workforce needed to address the higher demand for health services during heat waves. You can do it.”

A study on the Heat Wave vulnerability index is published in the Environmental Impact Assessment Review.

The mortality and climate change research is led by Professor Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick of ANU and is featured in Environmental Studies Climate.