Environment

Geoengineering strategies against climate change could have a positive impact on agriculture

Difference in annual production (yield x planted area) between ARISE-SAI-1.5 and SSP2-4.5 for CLM5 crops (in million tons). Rice (a) and wheat (b) production is averaged from 2050 to 2069. Hatching indicates that the difference between the two experiments is not significant. India’s total rice and wheat production time series (c). Shading represents the range corresponding to one standard deviation. Credit: Earth’s Future (2025). DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005262

Based on current carbon emissions rates and climate policies, average global temperatures are projected to rise by 2.9°C above pre-industrial averages by the end of this century. Such increases would place a severe strain on global agriculture, rendering large areas of current production areas unsuitable for crops and livestock. At the same time, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations estimates that food production needs to increase by 70% to keep pace with population growth.

In the absence of significant emissions reductions, some observers have proposed geoengineering strategies such as carbon dioxide removal and solar radiation regulation as alternative approaches to limiting warming. However, the impact of these strategies on food production is largely unknown.

Grant and colleagues report that stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), a geoengineering approach that mimics the effects of volcanic eruptions by releasing sulfate particles into the stratosphere to reflect solar radiation, has led to more total agricultural land than any other country. We researched what kind of impact this may have on India’s large agricultural industry. In the world. Agriculture employs 45% of the country’s workforce and generates more than $50 billion in exports each year.

New works will be published in the journal “Earth’s Future”.

The authors compared two climate simulations that considered climate change up to 2069. In the first experiment, the Assessment of Responses and Impacts of Solar Climate Interventions on the Earth System by Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (ARISE-SAI-1.5) experiment, the formulation of SAI limits temperature increase to 1.5°C.

The other, which follows the Shared Socio-Economic Pathway 2-4.5 (SSP2-4.5) and does not include SAI, predicts conditions where both emissions and temperatures increase compared to current levels. . The authors then assessed how each trajectory affected climate indicators such as total precipitation and warm periods, which influence rice and wheat production.

The results suggested that the climate intervention scenario would improve rice and wheat yields in India compared to the non-intervention scenario, but there are some caveats. Primarily, geoengineering helped maintain the ideal temperature range for growing crops, but it did not affect the extreme precipitation or drought caused by climate change. The results also suggested that rainfed wheat benefits more from intervention than irrigated wheat, but the effects on rainfed rice may vary by region.

The authors say this study is a step toward understanding the impacts of climate interventions such as SAI on agriculture. However, they stress that more research is needed in this area and that policymakers should continue to examine the outcomes before introducing interventions. The authors suggest that instead of climate intervention, changing planting dates could reduce impacts on agriculture in the Indian subcontinent.

Further information: Nina Grant et al., Impact of stratospheric aerosol interventions on Indian agriculture using agro-climate indicators, The Future of the Planet (2025). DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005262

Provided by American Geophysical Union

This article is republished courtesy of Eos, sponsored by the American Geophysical Union. Read the original story here.

Citation: Geoengineering strategies for climate change could positively impact agriculture (January 16, 2025) https://phys.org/news/2025-01-geoengineering-strategies-climate-positively- Retrieved January 16, 2025 from impact.html

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