Gaza analysis: 64,000 deaths due to violence from October 2023 to June 2024

An independent study by researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) suggests that the Palestinian Ministry of Health in the Gaza Strip underreported the number of violent deaths by about 41%.

The LSHTM study estimates 64,260 deaths from trauma in Gaza from October 7, 2023 to June 30, 2024, compared to 37,877 reported by the Palestinian Ministry of Health. .

The findings, published in The Lancet, show that around 3% of Gaza’s population died due to violence, and the analysis found that 59% of these deaths were women, children and the elderly. is shown.

The researchers used a statistical method known as “capture-recapture analysis” to estimate the number of deaths from trauma. This method combines data from multiple sources to arrive at an estimate of the number of deaths, even if not all data is recorded. Sources of information included mortuary records from Palestinian Ministry of Health hospitals, respondent-driven online surveys, and social media obituaries.

The gross under-reporting of deaths from trauma highlights the deterioration of Gaza’s health infrastructure and the resulting inability to count deaths amid ongoing violence. Based on estimated underreporting rates, the total number of Palestinian deaths due to trauma as of October 2024 will exceed 70,000.

Lead author Zeina Jamaluddin, from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), said: “The United Nations Human Rights Office has already condemned the war in Gaza, which has left many civilians dead, and our findings are… This suggests that death was due to trauma.” Although the death toll is underreported by approximately 41%, these results highlight the need for urgent intervention to protect civilians and prevent further loss of life. ”

The total number of war deaths is likely to be even higher, as this analysis does not take into account non-trauma-related deaths due to medical disruptions, food insecurity, inadequate water and sanitation, and disease outbreaks. be.