El Niño Southern Oscillation caused temperature rise in 2023, research shows
A study by scientists at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Sciences has found that the El Niño Southern Oscillation, rather than human-induced climate change, will be the primary cause of the spike in Earth’s surface temperatures in 2023. A sharp rise in Earth’s surface temperature in 2023 has sparked concern and speculation among the public and media about its causes.
The study, titled “2023 Global Warming Surge Driven by El Niño-Southern Oscillation,” was published in the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.
“Given the pressing nature of the problem, we wanted to thoroughly investigate the main causes of last year’s temperature rise,” said the study’s lead author Shiv, who completed the research as a postdoctoral fellow at the Rosenstiel School.・Priyam Raghuraman said. “Our experiments showed that a spike in global warming still occurs even when human impacts are not included in climate simulations.”
Analyzing models in which the climate evolves without the influence of human activity, the researchers found that if a long La Niña event precedes an El Niño event, as happened in 2022-2023, a spike in temperatures would occur. It showed a 10% chance of it happening. .
Furthermore, almost all spikes were associated with El Niño events. This result indicates that the warming spike in 2023 was primarily caused by El Niño Southern Oscillation rather than anthropogenic global warming events.
In 2023, global temperatures reached unprecedented levels, with many regions experiencing extreme heat, making it one of the hottest years on record.
The year saw significant temperature anomalies, particularly in parts of Europe and the Middle East, with heat waves bringing record highs, often exceeding 40°C (104°F). Ocean temperatures were also higher than normal, causing extreme weather events such as severe storms and prolonged droughts to occur in many parts of the world.
“This result contradicts the fact that human greenhouse gas emissions are the cause of the long-term warming trend, and that this warming will continue until net emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases reach zero. “No,” Brian Soden said. , study co-author and professor of atmospheric science at the Rosenstiel School.
El Niño is a climate phenomenon characterized by periodic increases in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It can have a major impact on global weather patterns and cause changes in the environment and climate.
Anthropogenic changes are a major contributor to long-term climate change, primarily by releasing greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere. Activities such as burning fossil fuels for energy, deforestation, and industrial processes have dramatically increased these gases, trapping heat and resulting in global warming.
The study points out that fluctuations in ENSO against the backdrop of anthropogenic warming trends could lead to year-to-year spikes in temperatures that are also historic records.
More information: Shiv Priyam Raghuraman et al, The 2023 global warming surge was driven by El Niño Southern Oscillation, atmospheric chemistry and physics (2024). DOI: 10.5194/acp-24-11275-2024
Provided by University of Miami
Citation: El Nino Southern Oscillation will cause temperatures to spike in 2023, research results (October 15, 2024) From https://phys.org/news/2024-10-el-nio-southern-oscillation-spike.html 2024 Retrieved October 15,
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