Dust in the System – How Saharan Storms Threate the Future of Solar Power in Europe

As Europe increases its dependence on solar energy to achieve climate and energy security goals, it complicates the path forward for growing atmospheric phenomena: Saharan dust. A new study published at the European Union of Geosciences (EGU25) shows that mineral dust, which runs from North Africa to wind, is not only reducing solar (PV) generation across Europe, but is becoming more difficult to predict.

In a presentation at EGU25, The Shadow of the Wind: Solar Power Under Dusty Sky in Europe, Dr. György Varga, collaborators from Hungarian and European institutions reveal how dusty skies can destroy PV performance and challenge existing predictive models. Their work is based on field data for over 46 Sahara dust events from 2019 to 2023, spanning both Central Europe (Hungary) and Southern Europe (Portugal, Spain, France, Italy and Greece).

The Sahara releases billions of tons of fine dust into the atmosphere each year, with tens of millions of tons of tons of tons of dust reaching the European sky. These particles can scatter to absorb sunlight, reduce surface irradiance and even promote cloud formation.

Researchers have found that traditional prediction tools using static aerosol climatology often miss marks during these events. Instead, the team recommends integrating near-real-time dust load data and aerosol cloud coupling into predictive models. This allows for more reliable scheduling of solar energy and better preparedness for fluctuations introduced by atmospheric dust.

“There is a growing need for dynamic prediction methods that explain both meteorological and mineralogical factors,” says Varga.

“Without them, the risk of poor performance and grid instability increases as sunlight becomes a larger part of the energy mix.”

Beyond the air impact, the team also points out the long-term impact of dust on the physical infrastructure of solar panels, including pollution and erosion. This research contributes to ongoing efforts in Hungary and the EU, improving climate resilience and renewable energy management.