The artist’s impression of asteroids near Earth passing through the Earth. The asteroids are there, and they pose a threat to Earth. New ways to determine distances more quickly will help keep us safe. Credit: ESA
We all know that asteroids are there, that some of them come dangerously close to Earth, and that they have previously struck Earth with devastating consequences. The recent discovery of Asteroid 2024 YR4 reminds us of the permanent threat that asteroids exist. There is an organized effort to find dangerous space rocks and decide how far they are and where the orbitals take them.
A team of scientists have developed a method that will help you determine the distance of an asteroid more quickly. This is an important part of determining the trajectory.
Our asteroid concerns are concentrated on Neos or Earthearth Objects. These are asteroids with the closest approach to the Sun less than 1.3 Astronomical Units (AU). (A few NEOs are comets.) There are over 37,000 NEOs, with potential impacts rare, but the results can be devastating. Considering what happened to the dinosaurs, there is not much room for self-satisfaction or hubrification.
Large asteroids in the main asteroid belt (MAB) are easy to study. Their large size means that they produce large signals when observed, making it easier for astronomers to determine the trajectory. However, MAB contains many small asteroids about 100-200 meters in diameter. They could be hundreds of millions. They are big enough to hit the earth and destroy an entire city, making them even more difficult to track. The first step in determining the trajectory is to determine the distance. This is challenging and time-consuming.
A recent study submitted to The Astronomical Journal presents a new way to determine asteroid distances in much shorter times. It is titled “Measure the distance to an asteroid from one observatory with an upcoming Allski telescope,” and is available on the ARXIV preprint server. The lead author is Maryann Fernandes, Faculty of Electrical and Computer Engineering at Duke University.
The Vera Rubin Observatory (VRO) is supposed to see the first light in July 2025. One of its scientific purposes is to find smaller objects in the solar system, including asteroids, by scanning the entire visible southern sky every few nights. If it moves and reflects, the VRO may find it. However, the distance to the asteroid is not automatically determined.
“When asteroids are measured with a short observation time window, the dominant uncertainty of orbital structures is due to the uncertainty of the distance of the NEO,” the authors of the new paper write. They argue that the method can reduce the time it takes to determine the distance of the asteroid to an overnight observation. It is based on a technique called topocentric parallax.
Consistency parallax is based on the rotation of the earth. In a 2022 paper by some of the same researchers, the authors said, “It comes from the diversity of station locations regarding the Earth’s center of the inertial reference frame. Observations from multiple observatory or single observatory are measured. The author wrote that it could be done. Parallax is due to the Earth rotating.”
Two years after that paper, the researchers improved their methods. This study extends previous algorithms and tests the method using both synthetic data and real observations.
“This paper develops and evaluates this technique further to restore distances as quickly as one night,” the author writes in a new paper. “First, we will test a methodology for the synthetic data of 19 different asteroids ranging from ~0.05 Au to ~2.4 Au.”
The diagram below shows the results of a test using synthetic data. Each asteroid was observed six times per night, and two different equations were employed to process the data.
This diagram shows the measured and true distances to 19 asteroids as part of the test of the method. In this test, each asteroid was observed six times per night. The top shows the measured distance (AU) versus true distance (AU) for all 19 asteroids considered in this analysis. Each panel is based on a different equation that can be used in the method. “We see fit from equation 1 of the asteroids that produces an accurate distance with true distance and relatively good coincidence,” the author writes. Credit: Arxiv (2025). doi:10.48550/arxiv.2502.07881
The researchers also tested the method by conducting 15 observations of each asteroid over five nights (3 nights per night). In this test, Equation 1 performance was reduced and Equation 2 worked well.
In this scenario, 15 observations were made over five nights, and three observations were made per night. Equation 1 is insufficient distance, and Equation 2 improves distance recovery. Credit: Arxiv (2025). doi:10.48550/arxiv.2502.07881
Of course, the distance to the asteroid affected the accuracy of the measurements. The closer the object was, the more accurate the measurements were. In this method, the method states that “can recover distances with ~1.3% uncertainty of nearby objects (approximately 0.3 Au or less), assuming typical astronomical measurement uncertainty.” Masu.
After these tests using synthetic data, the team obtained their own one-night observations of the two asteroids using different algorithms. The actual observations were less accurate, but they were still meaningful improvements. The author explains that distances can be restored “to the 3% level.”
So, what do all these tests, equations, and algorithms summarise?
When people hear of an asteroid that could hit the Earth in a few years, people can wonder why the situation is so uncertain. Don’t know if the asteroid is heading straight for us? It is extremely difficult to try to determine the trajectory of these small rocks tens of millions of km away. The AU is almost 150 million km (93 million miles). The latest asteroid of concern, 2024, is 40-90 meters (130-300 feet) in diameter. These numbers indicate the problem.
If this method improves the accuracy of distance measurements and can do it based on one night observations, it is a big improvement.
This technique can be applied to data generated by Vera Rubin Observatory and Argus Array. According to the author, “distance to Neos on a scale of ~0.5 Au can be below the percentage level within one night.”
As studies show, the accuracy of these measurements from a single-site observatory depends heavily on the spacing between individual observations. Using multiple observatory observatory on different sites on the same night increases accuracy.
Like the one that wiped out dinosaurs, larger asteroids tend to remain stable in the main asteroid belt, while smaller asteroids can perturb more easily and become part of the neo-population. The effects from small asteroids may not spell out the end of civilization, but they can still be very destructive.
It is wise to do what humanity can do to understand the threat of asteroids. Many asteroids have hit Earth in the past, but it’s only a matter of time before another asteroid reaches our path. If you can see it coming in advance, you can do something about it.
Details: Maryann Benny Fernandes et al, measuring distance from one observatory to asteroid in one night, all future ski telescopes, Arxiv (2025). doi:10.48550/arxiv.2502.07881
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Quote: Time taken to measure asteroid distances obtained from https://phys.org/news/2025-02-decreasing-asteroid-distances.html from February 18, 2025 (February 17, 2025) dramatically reduces
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