Direct measurements can reduce uncertainty in soil carbon credit markets

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Measuring soil carbon directly, rather than relying on predictive models, provides hard evidence of how much carbon is being stored, according to a recent study co-authored with scientists at Yale School of the Environment. It will enable a better assessment of the reliability of agricultural carbon markets. Published in “Environment Research Letters”.
By using appropriate research designs applied to real-world agricultural scales, the researchers also demonstrated climate-friendly strategies such as growing crops to cover the soil and leaving the soil undisturbed by tillage. They also found that through this practice it is possible to conduct a viable verification of how much carbon is stored in soil. Direct measurement methods can also be used to quantify how climate-smart practices impact soil health and other desired outcomes when combined with research designs common in fields such as epidemiology. The authors pointed out that it is possible.
“This research can be applied beyond carbon markets to other greenhouse gas accounting efforts, such as those undertaken by countries to report their national emissions, demonstrating that direct measurements at scale are possible. ” said co-author Mark Bradford, EH Harriman Professor of Soils. Ecosystem Ecology participated in this research through the Yale Applied Science Integrated Program, an initiative of the Yale Center for Natural Carbon Capture and YSE’s School of Forestry.
Bradford said natural carbon solutions, including farmland management to enhance carbon storage, are considered by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to be essential to mitigating the effects of the climate crisis. said. Soil organic carbon (SOC) calculations and credits primarily use measurement-and-model approaches and rely on predictive biogeochemical models derived from small-scale field trials and limited direct measurements, while commercial farms The real-world accuracy for predicting outcomes is uncertain, he said. .
Rather than relying on predictions from models, the researchers used a “measure and remeasure” approach using soil samples collected from hundreds of fields to produce reliable evidence of how much carbon is being stored. I discovered that I can provide it.
Mr Bradford said it was difficult to accurately measure changes in the amount of carbon stored in soil. Soil carbon changes slowly relative to large-scale background stocks, so many samples must be collected and analyzed to measure changes. This method has long been considered too expensive on a small scale.
The research team found that sampling 10% of the fields of many farms (up to tens of thousands of acres) over an extended period of time could provide reliable data. By directly measuring and remeasuring soil carbon using a causal research design, the credits sold are more likely to reflect actual carbon stocks and buyers can ensure that their funds are delivering real climate benefits. You can be confident that you are supported, and at the same time reduce costs as your project grows. concludes the author.
This approach could also be useful in validating the suitability of predictive models currently used for other agricultural greenhouse gas accounting purposes, such as internal accounting undertaken by companies to achieve net-zero targets. Yes, they added.
To help farmers calculate the cost-effectiveness of soil management projects, Eric Potash, a research scientist at the University of Illinois Agroecosystem Sustainability Center (ASC), who led the study, said We’ve developed an open source web app that you can explore. The cost and profitability of soil carbon projects based on specific parameters such as project size, duration, analytical costs, and sampling strategy.
“This study suggests that people may be able to reliably quantify the extent to which soil carbon is changing through the adoption of climate-smart agriculture and regenerative practices,” Bradford said. said.
“If we can address measurement and verification concerns about how soil carbon stocks are actually responding, we can prioritize policies and investments that achieve soil restoration and protection, and improve soil water and nutrient availability.” It improves retention, aeration and soil biodiversity. Healthy soils increase resilience to extreme weather events and build food security.”
The study was also co-authored by Environmental Defense Fund soil scientist Emily Oldfield (2005, MESc 2011, PhD 2019) and ASC Director Kaiyu Guan.
Further information: Eric Potash et al., Measurement and remeasurement as an economically viable approach to crediting soil organic carbon at scale, Environment Research Letters (2025). DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ada16c
Provided by Yale University
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