Despite the pressures of climate change, the chances of this century collapse are unlikely to fall, the model suggests

New research shows that major carriers of heat to the North Atlantic and Northwest Europe (AMOCs), the major carriers of heat to the North Atlantic and Northwest Europe, are unlikely to collapse.

The paper, published in the journal Nature, was led by a team of scientists from Met Office and Exeter University.

Dr. Jonathan Baker is a scientist at the Met Office and lead author of the paper.

He said, “AMOC plays an important role in regulating our climate. Without it, temperatures in northwest Europe would be much cooler.

“Our modeling studies suggest that AMOC resists pressure from freshwater inputs into the North Atlantic.

“Our research shows that a collapse over the next 75 years is unlikely, but AMOC is very likely to weaken, resulting in climate challenges beyond Europe.”

“What we’re finding is that as long as the wind blows around the South Sea, water is drawn from the deep sea there,” said Andrew Watson, professor at the University of Exeter.

“That water needs to be balanced by submerging it somewhere, and somewhere is the North Atlantic. So AMOC is controlled not only by its local condition but also by what is happening on the other side of the globe.”

Professor Rowan Sutton, director of Met Office Hadley Center, said: “This research brings important new insights into the future of AMOC.

“The AMOC aspect shows that it may be more robust than previous studies suggest.

“However, our expectations remain that AMOC will be weaker over the 21st century and that this weakening will have a significant impact on the climate.”

This new study supports findings from the latest IPCC assessments. This states with medium confidence that AMOC will not suddenly collapse in this century.

Further research into weakening of AMOC is urgently needed to fully understand the system and improve predictions.

“Our theoretical understanding, coupled with the use of cutting-edge models, shows that an imminent collapse of AMOC is unlikely to occur,” said Professor Jeff Vallis, a graduate of the University of Exeter.

“But this does not mean that global warming is not a serious problem for society or our planet.

“I think it’s very unlikely that my house will burn out in the next few years, but I still buy insurance to protect that risk.”

Under extreme climate change scenarios, the authors discovered the emergence of a Pacific Meridian Surrounding Cycle (PMOC) sinking into the Pacific Ocean in most simulations.

“However, this is not strong enough to balance all of the wind-driven upwellings in the South, so it must maintain some degree of sinking in the North Atlantic and prevent the complete collapse of the AMOC,” said Dr. Baker.