Climate, migration and conflict combine to produce ‘deadly’ severe tropical cyclones like Chido

Cyclone Chido was a “strong tropical cyclone” equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean. It made landfall on Mayotte, a small island northwest of Madagascar, on December 14, producing wind gusts close to 155 mph (250 kph). It then struck Mozambique in East Africa with the same ferocity.

The storm bypassed north of Madagascar and affected the Comoros Islands before making landfall in Mozambique. This is well within the range expected for this region of the Indian Ocean. However, the region has seen an increase in the most powerful tropical cyclones in recent years. In addition to occurring earlier in the season, this may be related to rising ocean temperatures as a result of climate change.

News continues regarding the impact of Tropical Cyclone Tide in Mayotte, Mozambique and Malawi. Current estimates are that 70% of Mayotte’s population has been affected, and more than 50,000 homes in Mozambique have been partially or completely destroyed.

The ongoing conflict in Mozambique and illegal immigration to Mayotte will play a significant role in the death toll and infrastructure damage.

Assessing how the characteristics of these cyclones are changing across southern Africa is part of the research we are undertaking. Our team is also researching how to build resilience to cyclones that increase the impact of conflict, displacement, and migration.

Man-made disaster?

The risk that tropical cyclones pose to human life is further exacerbated by socio-economic issues. Mayotte’s migrants, many of whom have made perilous journeys to escape conflict in countries such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo, now make up more than half of the island’s population.

The disaster was reportedly made more deadly because housing instability and the illegal presence of many residents made people fearful that they would be reported to the police if they evacuated. On an island like Mayotte with poor infrastructure, there is often no safe place to go. It will take many days for power grids and drinking water supplies to be restored.

The situation is particularly complex in Mozambique. In addition to the ongoing conflict and violence caused by terrorism, a series of cyclones, including Kenneth in 2019, have caused repeated evacuations and deterioration of living conditions. Cabo Delgado and Nampula provinces in Mozambique’s far north are the provinces most affected by both Tido and conflict, and are among the poorest in the country due to limited education, poor livelihoods, and an influx of people displaced by violence. It ranks as the most densely populated state.

As of June 2024, more than 500,000 people in the region have no permanent place of residence, many of them living in displacement camps. There is a possibility that the number will increase significantly after the introduction of Hokkaido.

Further exacerbating the crisis, Chido’s landfall early in the cyclone season meant that normal technical and financial preparedness had not yet been sufficiently strengthened, and low stock levels prevented timely assistance. It meant that the delivery was delayed. The turmoil following the November elections hampered further preparations, disrupting the flow of resources and personnel needed for proactive action and early response.

Tropical cyclones in a warm world

Rising sea surface temperatures could expand the area at risk from tropical cyclones, as well as provide the fuel for more powerful storms.

The Indian Ocean is warming faster than the global average, with an alarming increase in the proportion of storms reaching 1000 degrees.

Climate simulations suggest that as the world warms, the storm will grow stronger and could even make an unprecedented landfall as far south as Mozambique’s capital, Maputo.

Scientists conduct attribution studies to determine how climate change contributed to particular events. Scientists conducting a rapid study of ground motion attribution found that sea surface temperatures along the storm’s path were 1.1 degrees Celsius warmer than they would have been without climate change. This means that the chances of temperatures rising this much are more than 50 times more likely due to climate change. Another study focused on Chido itself, finding that global heating from fossil fuel combustion could make the cyclone’s winds 5% faster, enough to raise it from a Category 3 storm to a Category 4 storm. concluded.

Strong winds are not the only danger. Scientists believe that tropical cyclones will produce more rain as a result of climate change. A trend has been observed in which storms move more slowly, resulting in more rain gathering in one place and causing flooding.

In March 2023, Cyclone Freddie dumped a year’s worth of rain on southern Malawi in just four days. Intensified storm surges caused by rising sea levels also increase the scale of flooding, such as the devastating Cyclone Idai in March 2019. Rapidly intensifying storms, like those experienced by Chido before it made landfall on Mayotte, are also linked to climate change, making early supplies difficult. caveat.

Improving resilience to future cyclones requires considering conflict, migration and social dynamics alongside climate change, without which displaced and migrant communities will face the greatest impact of the risks posed by climate change. I will continue to receive it.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.