Climate change may outweigh tree movements and require human intervention: Research

A new study in the Colorado State University Internal US West found that tree ranges are generally contracting in response to climate change, but not expanding to cool, humid climates. Insects and diseases.

If the climate is too warm for the trees in certain locations, the extent of the trees is expected to shift towards more ideal conditions. The study analyzed national forest inventory data from over 25,000 plots of the western US except for coastal states, and found that trees were not regenerating in the hottest parts of their range. This is a predicted outcome.

What’s more surprising to researchers is that most of the 15 common tree species studied did not acquire status in areas where conditions are more favorable, with most tree species having more than one another without assistance. This indicates that there is a high chance that you will not be able to move to the climate you live in.

“Trees offer a lot of value in terms of clean water, clean air, wildlife habitat and recreation,” said lead author Katie Negro, who conducted the study as a graduate student at CSU. “If forest managers want to store certain trees in the landscape, our research shows where they can still exist, or where they need help.”

The reduced area was prevalent in uninterrupted areas and affected by wildfires, insects and diseases. Using 30 years of obstruction data, researchers have established that the tree movement (particularly wildfires) is cooler and wet by killing adult trees and eliminating competition in seedlings and establishing them in a favorable climate zone. We tested the idea of ​​catalyzing areas.

“Leads, like us and all species, only function within certain climate tolerances, while different species have different climate tolerances,” Negro said. “We thought we could find more shifts to cooler zones, especially in burnt areas.”

The findings of the study published in Natural Climate Change provide a broad overview of key patterns. This means that not only does not regenerate overall in the hottest and dry parts of the wood range, but it cannot expand along the cool, moist boundaries of the range. Nigro warned that there may not be enough time to see the new tree facilities in cooler and moist areas, especially due to slower growing subalpine species. She added that more local research is needed to determine which species survive where.

The paper advocates human-supported tree movement as rapid warming from climate change is likely to outweigh regeneration.

“One potential problem is that we can get a bigger, bigger mismatch between where the trees live and the ideal climate,” Negro said.

Trees seeking cool temperatures face uphill battles

Increased wildfires, insects and disease disorders due to climate change can prevent regeneration by removing seed sources, and seeds literally have a difficult battle to gain cooler ground slopes It’s there.

Co-author Monique Rocca, an associate professor of ecosystem science and sustainability, said: “There are many conditions that need to be installed to allow the trees to move to cooler and damper areas.”

She continued, “If this study was to cover Western landscapes with trees, it delves into details of where the trees remain in the landscape themselves and where they need to intervene.”

Some species were superior to others. Of the four species that have continued to regenerate in areas that have already been occupied regardless of climate change, wildfires, insects and disease outbreaks, three of them are rare in the landscape, making it difficult to accurately measure responses. is. Oak is a resilient, heat-resistant, drought-resistant species.

This study used long-term field data from the USDA Forest Service forest inventory and analysis program. Research plots of forest areas across the country are continuously investigated to track growth or loss of individual trees through harvest, disease, or death. Analytics Team Kristen Pelz led the inventory and analysis program and co-authored the study.

“Dr. Negro leveraged the power of data collected in the field to show how forests are changing today, not in theory,” Peltz said. “Her work is important because it takes into account how things like fire and native insects interact with the climate.

Rather than looking at the variation in the range of the mean tree, as previously done by research, this study went a step further and examined the cold and warm edges of the range of species (head and subsequent edges). It provides and provides practical insights to forest managers. Supplementary transitions are less important if the tree is expanding into a cool area on its own.

“This study will help land managers and foresters decide whether to stick to trees in the hottest parts of the range for as long as possible, or move to a more heat and drought-resistant system,” says Negro. said, adding that sometimes the move can be done with seeds of the same species adapted to a warm environment.

In her current study as the Oak Ridge Institute Postdoctoral Institute for Science Education at Rocky Mountain Research Station, Negro reveals the best chance that any single species of seeds can survive under harsh climate conditions. You are trying to determine if you may have it. Co-authors Miranda Redmond, PhD CSU advisors from Negro, also follow up on this study by studying tree species adaptation at UC Berkeley.

“These efforts, coupled with tree regeneration disorders observed in many regions, are becoming increasingly important due to the speed and scale of tree death from wildfires, droughts and other climate-driven disturbances. “Redmond said.

“Planting may be necessary to preserve the tree in the most valuable landscape, and we may need to embrace new ecosystems in areas that are inevitably changing. Do it today.”