“City Killer” asteroids currently have a 3.1% chance of hitting Earth: NASA

Asteroids that could level the city could hit 3.1% of Earth in 2032, according to NASA data released Tuesday.

Despite the rising odds, experts say there is no need for an alarm. The global astronomical community is closely monitoring the situation, with the James Webbspace Telescope being set to lock the gaze on an object known as the 2024 YR4 next month.

“I’m not panicking,” Bruce Betts, chief scientist at the nonprofit Planetary Society, told AFP.

“Of course, seeing percentages rise, it doesn’t feel warm, ambiguous and good,” he added, but as astronomers collect more data, it quickly reaches zero He explained that the probability will likely increase before it drops.

The 2024 YR4 was first detected by the Elsau Observatory in Chile on December 27th last year.

Astronomers estimate that its size is between 130 and 300 feet (40 to 90 meters) wide, based on its brightness. Analysis of that light signature suggests that it has a rather typical composition, rather than a rare metal-rich asteroid.

The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAND), a global planetary defense collaboration, issued a warning memo on January 29th after impact probability exceeded 1%. The numbers have fluctuated since then, but they continue to move upwards.

NASA’s latest calculations estimate the impact probability is 3.1%, which could be the Earth impact date of December 22, 2032.

This leads to a odds of 32nd. This is the same as correctly guessing the outcome of five consecutive coin tosses.

It was the 2004 Apophis that asteroids over 30 meters in size that pose such a significant risk, with a 2.7% chance of hitting Earth in 2029.

It’s “historical” to surpass that threshold, says Richard Moisle, director of the European Space Agency’s Planetary Defense Agency.

Webb observations in March

“This is a very rare event,” he told AFP, but “This is not a crisis at this point. This is not a dinosaur killer. This is not a planet killer. This is the most dangerous. It’s the city.

Betts of the Planetary Society says that data from Webb’s telescope (the most powerful space observatory) is key to a better understanding of orbit.

“Webb can see something very dim,” he said. This is important as the asteroid orbit is currently ejecting towards Jupiter, and the next close approach will not be until 2028.

If the risk rises by more than 10%, the IAND will issue a formal warning, leading to “recommendations for all UN members who have territory to begin preparing the globe in potentially threatened regions.” , explained Moissl.

Unlike the 6-mile, 10-kilometer wide asteroid that wiped out dinosaurs 66 million years ago, the 2024 YR4 is classified as an “urban killer.”

Its potential devastation is less from its size and more from its speed.

When you enter the Earth’s atmosphere, the most likely scenario is airburst. This means that it will explode in the air with approximately 8 megatons of force from TNT.

However, if the size is close to the upper limit of the estimate, impact craters cannot be eliminated, Betts said.

Potential collision corridors span the East Pacific, northern South America, the Atlantic, Africa, the Arabian Peninsula and South Asia. Moissl stressed that it was too early to consider a dramatic decision like the relocation.

Good news: There’s plenty of time to act.

NASA’s 2022 darts mission proves that spacecraft can successfully change the path of asteroids, with scientists using lasers to create thrusts by surface evaporation, or with spacecraft gravity Other methods have theorized, such as extracting thrust by pulling out and using nuclear explosions. A last resort.

©2025 AFP