City fires are likely to increase with climate change, modeling research warns

Modeling research published in Nature Cities shows that the frequency of fires in several types of cities as a result of climate change is projected to increase in the coming decades. The findings are based on data from 2,847 cities in 20 countries, and will help with future urban planning and emergency response strategies.

Fires worldwide cause an estimated 50,000 deaths and 170,000 injuries each year. However, the trends in future fire frequency in urban environments are uncertain. This lack of understanding can undermine local fire resource management and urban planning.

Researcher Long Shee and colleagues collected data from urban fire stations in 2,847 cities in 20 countries, including the US, the UK, Australia and China, to establish a global database of city-level fire incidents from 2011 to 2020. The authors subsequently quantified changes in the frequency of different types of urban fire incidents, including burning of urban buildings, vehicles and outdoor areas (such as landfills) depending on the warming climate.

Using this historical dataset, the authors assessed the possible impact of global warming on the frequency of different urban fire types based on various intergovernmental panels on climate change (IPCC) climate scenarios.

Shi and colleagues predicted that by 2100, vehicle fires could increase by 11.6% and outdoor fires could increase by 22.2%, but under the greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP5–8.5), building fires could decrease by 4.6%. They also reported an estimated total of 335,000 fire-related deaths and 1.1 million fire-related injuries between 2020 and 2100 due to global warming in all cities in this study.

The authors argue that the findings serve as a foundation for developing new strategies to combat fires, including improving fire fuel management. However, they note that the analysis does not include data from Africa and South America, and that findings on vehicle fires may not reflect the recent shift to electric vehicles.