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China’s child policies will increase future carbon emissions, researchers say

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Relaxing restrictions on family size will make it harder for China to meet its goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2060, according to a new study by UCL researchers.

The paper, published as a Policy Brief in the journal Nature Climate Change, is the first study to analyze the impact of national population policies on future carbon emissions.

The researchers examined various birthrates, including the previous two-child policy, the current three-child policy, and a hypothetical “replacement level” fertility rate (2.1 children) that would maintain the country’s population. We estimated the carbon dioxide emissions of China’s projected population under the policy. The current level of approximately 1.4 billion will be maintained indefinitely.

They said that by relaxing fertility policies and allowing people to have more children, China’s future population and associated carbon emissions would be larger than they would have been otherwise, and by 2060 We found that achieving the stated goal of achieving carbon neutrality will be difficult.

Senior author Professor Jifu Mee (UCL Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction) said: “China is one of the world’s most populous countries and one of the world’s largest carbon emitters. ‘s impact on future population and carbon emissions.’ It is extremely important for sustainable development. ”

China’s one-child policy, originally introduced in 1979 to limit stress on limited resources, significantly limited the country’s population growth. It also had the effect of aging the country’s demographics over time, as there were fewer young people to offset the aging of the population.

In response to the aging population, this one-child policy was changed to a two-child policy in October 2015, and then to the current three-child policy in May 2021.

China’s birth rate in 2020 was 1.3 children per woman, below the “replacement level” of 2.1 births per woman needed to maintain the population.

This situation has led to an aging population, with the proportion of the population aged 65 and over doubling from 7% in 2000 to 14% in 2020. Furthermore, China’s population will decrease by 850,000 people in 2022, marking the first population decline in China. 60 years.

Researchers believe that even under the current three-child policy, not everyone starts a family and not all families have up to three children, so China’s population will grow by 2060. They found that the number would still decline to about 1.3 billion. Under the previous two-child policy, the population would decline to about 1.15 billion by 2060, but would remain at 1.39 billion once replacement levels are reached.

Using these estimates, the proportion of people aged 65 and over would increase to 42% of the population under the two-child policy, 37% under the three-child policy, and 35% under the replacement level. Masu.

Impact of estimated future population on carbon emissions

The researchers analyzed the carbon emissions predicted by various projected demographic trends under three different population policies by 2060, when China aims to become carbon neutral.

Overall, China is the world’s largest carbon emitter, but it produces less carbon per capita than developed countries. The average person in China’s annual household carbon footprint is about one-sixth that of an American, and one-third that of someone in the UK or Japan. China’s average per capita carbon dioxide emissions are about 2.34 tons, which is about the same as Mexico and about three times that of India.

However, this average is not universal across age groups and regions in China. Younger generations tend to be wealthier and consume more, producing on average 1.21 to 2.93 times more carbon dioxide. People living in the more industrialized northwestern and eastern states also tend to produce more carbon dioxide per capita.

The household carbon footprint of young people is higher than that of older people, mainly due to increased consumption due to the growing affluence. Researchers say China faces a potentially significant increase in carbon emissions, as official policy currently allows for up to three children and younger generations are wealthier than older people. found a reversal of recent trends.

The paper also estimated the impact of delayed retirement policies on China’s future carbon emissions. In September 2024, China announced plans to gradually raise the retirement age over the next 15 years. Researchers found that although raising the retirement age may lead to a small increase in carbon emissions, it would significantly reduce dependency rates and help ease the pressures of an aging population.

Professor Zhifu Mi said: “A deeper understanding of the future of China’s population’s carbon footprint will lead to policies that encourage young people to live more sustainable lifestyles, such as reducing consumption, using public transport, and purchasing.” I hope it will be useful.” A product that can be used for a long time. ”

Further information: Ling Tang et al., Relaxed fertility policies and delayed retirement age increase China’s carbon emissions, Nature Climate Change (2024). DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02145-5

Provided by University College London

Citation: China’s child policies will increase future carbon emissions, researchers say (October 14, 2024) https://phys.org/news/2024-10-china-child-policies- Retrieved October 14, 2024 from future-carbon.html

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