Beef production releases more than twice the target of greenhouse gases, a Brazilian study found

One of the pillars of the Brazilian economy and one of the sectors with the highest greenhouse gas emissions in Brazil currently practiced, one of the sectors that emit more than twice the limits needed to achieve international environmental targets. This is one of the conclusions of the research published in the journal Environmental Science and Pollution Research.

This work includes an assessment of the projected emissions scenarios along with an economic assessment. The researchers calculated that by 2030, sector emissions ranged from 0.42 to 0.63 Gigatons of CO2 Equivalent (GTCO2E), and the limit for meeting the nationally determined contribution (NDC) target would be 0.26 GTCO2E. Meanwhile, mitigation strategies along the production chain can prevent losses of up to USD 42.6 billion and increase competitiveness.

The NDC is a commitment made by the country in the Paris Agreement signed in 2015, and this year it will be reviewed to the COP30 (UN Climate Change Conference) in Belem, Amazon, Brazil.

The commitment includes national emission reduction targets and covers all sectors of the economy with guidelines for transforming development models. The global aim is to limit the rise in the planet’s average temperature to 1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial period (between 1850 and 1900).

However, this limitation is at risk. 2024 is the hottest year in history, with the average global temperature rise of 1.55°C and 1.55°C, according to the World Weather Organization (WMO).

This study was based on NDCs that were effective until 2024, and by 2030 there was a 43% reduction in emissions compared to the 2005 level. In November, Brazil submitted a new contribution to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and pledged to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions between 850 million and 10.5 billion tonnes of CO2 by 2035.

“We know how important the beef sector is not just for the economy, but for the Brazilian menu. Our goal is not to produce or eat less meat, but to begin discussions about current production forms without adopting deforestation, high emissions and sustainable technologies.

“Our findings show that practices need to be adopted in production chains that reduce emissions, which also contribute to reducing costs associated with climate change,” biologist Mariana Vieira da Costa, the first author of the article, tells us from the Economics, Health and Environmental Pollution (Respa) lab at the Federal University of Saupauro (Unifesp) in Brazil.

In their study, the authors used so-called carbon of social costs (SCC), methods to quantify the financial impact of emissions on society, and references for climate policy and decision-making.

The SCC represents the economic cost of releasing a ton of CO2, including non-commercial effects on the environment and human health, as well as consequences such as losses to agriculture and damage caused by extreme weather events. These costs could be reduced or redirected to investments in more sustainable livestock production practices through public policy and accessible credit lines.

Research shows that potential cost savings range from US$18.8 billion to US$42.6 billion by 2030, depending on whether the target is met.

In 2023, Brazil set a record of beef exports, selling 2.29 million tonnes to 157 countries, generating sales of USD 10.555 billion. Scientists have considered the importance of beef exports to Brazil by calculating how much it will be available for domestic consumption in 2030 if production is reduced within the 0.26 GTCO2E emission limit required to meet the NDC. As a result, there were 2-10 kg of beef per person (annual).

“I’ve always wanted to study the relationship between agriculture and climate change in cattle. At first, I had a hard time finding more refined data. So we created indicators,” adds Costa.

In the case of Miraglia, the results are important as rising global average temperatures lead to additional economic impacts, including reduced agricultural production, increased forest fires, and increased health impacts, including mortality, without significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

scenario

Over the period of almost 40 years (1985-2022), Brazil’s agricultural regions have grown from 50% to 282.5 million hectares. This is one third of the national territory. Of this total, 58% is pasture (currently 164.3 million hectares), according to a study by Mapbiomas, a joint network of NGOs, universities and technology startups that map Brazilian land cover and land use.

Approximately 64% of the agriculture expansion was due to deforestation of pastures (64.5 million hectares). This growth occurred primarily in the Amazon, with the biome overtaking Cerad (a biome like the Brazilian savanna) in terms of pasture area.

Scientists point to the need for research and synergy with rural producers to promote more efficient, low-emission production practices and seek environmentally sustainable technologies and technologies. They also highlight the role the federal government can play in mediating and integrating research and technology adoption by producers.

They point out that while the ABC+ plan is currently promoting investment in intensive practices by livestock farmers, their adoption is still low. Adaptation Planning and Low Carbon Emissions Planning in Agriculture (ABC+) is the Brazilian government’s agenda to be implemented between 2020 and 2030, providing continuity of sectoral policies to combat climate change in the agricultural sector.

It seeks to diversify financial and fiscal sources and instruments, in addition to creating and strengthening mechanisms for adopting sustainable production systems and practices.

Costa notes that diversifying incentives, such as tax exemptions and the introduction of carbon credits, is essential to stimulate and promote large-scale change in the sector.