Alarming temperature rises expected in the Middle East and North Africa

Evaluation of climate models. Between CMIP5-unadjusted dataset and ERA5 dataset (top row), CMIP6-unadjusted dataset and ERA5-Land dataset (second row), CMIP5-adjusted dataset and ERA5 dataset (third row) indicates the average bias of . CMIP6-Adjusted and ERA5-Land datasets (bottom row). Panels (a, c, e, g) and panels (b, d, f, h) show the summer and winter mean biases, respectively. Green polygons mark the boundaries of the Arabian Peninsula. The blue line indicates the coastal zone up to 160 km from the coast. Credit: JGR Atmospheres (2024). DOI: 10.1029/2024JD041625, https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024JD041625
Already home to some of the hottest and driest regions on Earth, climate change is accelerating in the Middle East and North Africa, reaching warming thresholds 20 to 30 years earlier than the rest of the world, a new study says. Reporting. By 2100, parts of the Arabian Peninsula could experience up to 9 degrees Celsius (16.2 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming.
The region has already experienced record summer temperatures, but is now on the verge of warming by an average of 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) compared to pre-industrial temperatures. Further warming in the region could make some areas uninhabitable without adaptation measures.
“When we talk about the Paris Agreement, we should try to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius and not exceed 2 degrees Celsius,” said Abdul Malik, a climate scientist at King Abdullah University of Science and Technology. “I’m saying,” he said. and lead author of this study. “However, in parts of the Middle East and North Africa, temperature increases are already in excess of 1.5 or 2 degrees Celsius.”
This research was published in JGR: Atmospheres.
Modeling rapidly warming regions
The Middle East and North Africa are largely desert ecosystems, with most of the population living in coastal areas. Predictions from climate models so far have both overestimated and underestimated warming in the region, and scientists are hoping to gain a more nuanced understanding of warming across the region. It wasn’t done.
In this study, researchers used the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models to analyze the Middle East and North Africa at high spatial resolution (81 square kilometers, or approximately 50 square miles) to better understand warming in the region. did.
“Previous studies have shown that this region is warming much faster than other regions, but we showed that the rate of warming is not consistent across the region,” Malik said. he said. “And this rate of warming could vary between 1.5 and 3.5 times faster than the global average.”
This rapid rate means the Middle East and North Africa could reach warming of 3 and 4 degrees Celsius (5.4 and 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) almost 30 years earlier than most regions of the planet. Masu. The warming will be particularly rapid in the interior of the Arabian Peninsula.
Hot regions get even hotter
The Middle East and North Africa are home to some of the hottest regions on Earth, and researchers predict that dramatic warming will continue. The central Arabian Peninsula is already warming up to three times faster than the rest of the world, a study has found. The rate of warming is comparable to that of the Arctic.
By 2100, the Arabian Peninsula could warm on average by 2.6 degrees Celsius (4.7 degrees Fahrenheit) under the low-emissions scenario and by 7.6 degrees Celsius (13.7 degrees Fahrenheit) under the high-emissions scenario. there is.
That’s because, in contrast to the humid equatorial deserts of other parts of the world, the arid deserts of the Middle East and North Africa do not cool as easily through evaporation of soil moisture.
“Desert regions are warming almost as fast as the polar regions, and the temperatures are much higher,” said Georgy Stenchkov, a former climate scientist and one of the study’s co-authors. “That means we’ll reach the temperature threshold much faster than in the polar regions.”
Due to coastal cooling, the densely populated areas along the south and west coasts of the Arabian Peninsula, including Oman, are currently not warming as fast as the interior and the east coast of the peninsula.
The rate of warming is not constant throughout the seasons. Researchers found summer hotspots in the central Arabian Peninsula, including the populous Riyadh province and Algeria, and winter hotspots in Mauritania and Iran’s Elburz Mountains.
If the world meets low emissions targets, the rate of warming in the Middle East and North Africa could slow by up to 38%. Individual cities can also try to adapt to extreme heat through urban greening and architectural solutions.
“Adaptation is necessary, and these adaptation measures can be tested and developed in the Middle East and North Africa,” Stenchkov said. “Global warming is a global problem, so we can’t prevent it in one place. But we can develop artificial environments in populated areas.”
Further information: Abdul Malik et al. Historical and future warming acceleration in the Middle East and North Africa, JGR Atmospheres (2024). DOI: 10.1029/2024JD041625. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.co … 10.1029/2024JD041625
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