Science

After a disappointing COP29, here’s how to design global climate talks that could actually work

Credit: Pixabay/CC0 Public Domain

Many people who have been involved in global climate change negotiations for years see the annual United Nations COP climate negotiations as fundamentally flawed. That includes me.

The 29th round of talks concluded on Sunday in Baku, Azerbaijan. It was probably my 25th COP. I have attended these talks in a variety of roles, but primarily as the Australian Government’s climate change negotiator. Recently, I have been attending for academic purposes.

COP29 failed to achieve a breakthrough. This led to a modest increase in climate finance for developing countries and agreement on carbon market rules. However, many problems arose along the way.

COP talks are making slow progress. And the annual meeting is seen as a “win-lose” moment, which complicates the relationship. Petrostates and lobbyists are trying to avoid mention of fossil fuel abolition. The host nation needs a victory, but it leads to “promises” that may not lead to substantive change. Ahead of this year’s consultations, key climate change stakeholders renewed their calls for reform of the COP process.

But even with its flaws, the COP is the only way to get the world’s countries together in the same room to discuss what to do about climate change.

In recent years, world leaders have been preoccupied with the coronavirus, the Ukraine-Russia war, and now the Middle East. But climate change is only getting worse. It won’t be long before real world events bring our attention back to the biggest threats we face.

Why are these conversations important?

Since 1995, the COP meeting has served as the main driver of global action on climate change. These consultations will remain important until the transition to clean energy is complete and the burning of fossil fuels is no longer routine.

The solution to climate change can be summed up in one word: investment. Businesses and governments invest money every day. They either invest in current technologies that worsen carbon pollution, or they invest in cleaner alternatives.

COP consultations can help redirect investments. This is evidenced by the amount of money currently being invested in green energy, grid upgrades, and energy efficiency (twice as much as in new fossil fuels). (Unfortunately, the picture is very different when fossil fuel subsidies are included.)

Last year, countries finally included a document on the need to transition away from fossil fuels. It was a hard-won victory. But this year, diplomats from Saudi Arabia and its petrostate allies were able to block any mention of it.

The fossil fuel document was non-binding. However, they had influence on the board of directors, where investment decisions were made.

Discover the latest in science, technology and space with over 100,000 subscribers who use Phys.org as their daily source of information. Sign up for our free newsletter to receive daily or weekly updates on breakthroughs, innovations, and important research.

Process over progress?

The way the COP consultations are set up is not ideal.

Each year, a new country is chosen to chair the summit and host the summit. Negotiations will take place over two weeks and the agenda is extensive. This year, host Azerbaijan struggled to control the agenda. As a result, issues such as the global stocktake, which includes calls for the abolition of fossil fuels, were left on the table for COP30, which will be held in Brazil a year later.

This meeting only happens once a year, so everything is packed into it. It’s very messy.

Every June, climate change negotiators hold an intersessional meeting in Bonn, Germany, where the United Nations Climate Change Secretariat is headquartered, before the next COP meeting.

These meetings often see efforts to rescind announcements made at formal COP meetings. In some cases these can be successful.

All delegates sent to COP meetings have two reasons for participating. First, their governments have done some work to solve the big problem of climate change. Five or six countries may not, but the remaining 190+ countries do. The second reason is to protect national interests. Of course, you can also do both.

But this poses a hidden problem. In my opinion, most participants become focused on the process rather than the outcome. They travel twice a year, once during the COP itself and in Bonn, where they meet with friends and colleagues. It has become routine. For some, the process is a key point.

5 ideas for change

Consultations at the COP are flawed but necessary. Can it be improved?

Here are five ideas.

1. Terminating the negotiation process

Meetings of the COP subsidiary bodies held in cities where most countries have diplomatic missions abroad. These groups could meet more regularly and create pressure and momentum for more speed and results.

2. Change the arrangements for the COP Presidency

Sometimes the country hosting the talks tries to control the outcome as much as possible. However, this is a near impossible task. A better option might be to rely on national negotiators to do most of the work and hold them responsible for achieving the outcome.

3. Increase the importance of regional conferences

COP is big. Thousands of delegates from hundreds of countries, and many participants from civil society and business. It’s very difficult when everyone tries to talk to everyone. Better progress would be made if the promotion of COP consultations was transferred to smaller, regular regional meetings.

4. Bring together more ambitious countries

There are several groups of countries that want to do more and faster on climate change, such as the High Ambition Coalition. These gatherings help inspire action among like-minded leaders. But it requires sustained leadership to be effective.

5. Direct action with largest emitter

The 2015 Paris Agreement set a joint goal of keeping climate change below 2°C. This was the high water mark of the COP talks. Before the deal was signed, top emitters China and the United States found common ground on climate change in direct talks, despite their growing geopolitical rivalry. This contributed to Paris’s success. In 2025, under President Donald Trump, the United States will again step back from the climate action arena. But China is now more confident in taking a leading role in combating climate change.

What about blocking oil states from hosting such talks, as prominent climate change advocates and shakers are calling for? We cannot simply exclude countries with which we have concluded treaties and agreements. The solution here is to organize better. There is no need for pressure from petrostates to prevail. Oil-rich Azerbaijan’s hosting of COP29 has sparked skepticism, but there is no indication that the country’s leaders want the process to fail.

Need: new political will

Ten years ago, the world felt almost unified on climate. But while the Paris Agreement helped avoid the worst-case emissions scenario, it still hasn’t reduced emissions for a year.

No matter how you look at it, climate change is slipping down the list of global imperatives. The situation will change as further dire effects arrive.

Presented by The Conversation

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.conversation

Quote: After a disappointing COP29, here’s how to design global climate negotiations that might actually work (26 November 2024) https://phys.org/news/2024-11 Retrieved November 26, 2024 from -disappointing-cop29-global-climate.html

This document is subject to copyright. No part may be reproduced without written permission, except in fair dealing for personal study or research purposes. Content is provided for informational purposes only.

Related Articles

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Back to top button