A warning of a deadly future ocean heat wave at the estuary of the East Coast Learning

The first study, led by William & Mary’s Batten School & VIMS, predicts that estuaries along the US’s eastern coast will experience up to a third of marine heatwave conditions by the end of the century. Estuaries serve as a key nursery habitat for almost 75% of all fish species and support employment of over 54 million people, which could have catastrophic consequences for marine ecosystems and the fisheries and communities that depend on them.

The study, published in the Science Report, used long-term monitoring data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Estuary Research Institute (NERR) program to examine conditions at 20 US estuaries over the past 20 years. The results showed that the frequency of ocean heat waves at the east coast estuary was rising.

“For example, the Chesapeake Bay currently experiences around 6% per year (22 days a year), which is already stressing the ecosystem. Our study shows that the east coast estuary can experience these conditions by 2100.” “This study should serve as a warning to policymakers and environmental managers responsible for conserving these important ecosystems.”

The news was better for the West Coast estuary. This does not show a significant warming trend and could serve as an important future shelter for many species. The researchers hypothesized that this was due to permanent wind-driven local upwelling in the Pacific Ocean, bringing deep, cold water to the surface.

Most studies on ocean heat waves focus on the wide area of ​​the open ocean that satellites can provide long-term thermal data or provide to individual estuaries.

“Our research was the first to paint a picture of the effects of climate change affecting ocean heat waves at estuaries across the country, and would not have been possible without the long-term data provided by NOAA’s NERR surveillance system.”

This study also showed the relationships with large-scale climate patterns, such as El Niño and the Pacific Decade Oscillation (PDO), in regulating marine heat waves, particularly at the west coast estuary where positive stages can more than double the occurrence. Although estuaries are usually considered interdependent, researchers have found strong relationships between estuaries within similar geographical regions. This finding points to atmospheric heat exchange as the dominant driver of heat waves.

This study is based on previous research by Batten School & VIMS, which first recorded heat waves at the estuary in the Chesapeake Bay. As he proceeds with his master’s thesis, Nardi will study how connected the estuary is to the open ocean process.

“All factors affecting the heat within these systems, including the estuary, its tributaries and coastal marine conditions, need to be carefully quantified,” Nardi said. “These are important ecosystems, and future conservation efforts will depend on understanding the factors that affect them.”