3D dynamic models provide a more accurate hazard assessment of earthquakes

An international study published in Communications Earth & Environment proceeds with earthquake simulations to better predict the rupture process of major earthquakes.

Using data from the February 2023 Turkish earthquake, scientists have developed a detailed 3D dynamic model that will better understand the powerful shaking during this earthquake and therefore more accurately understand the information for future earthquake hazard assessments. The study was led by Professor Martin Mai of King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (Kaust) and scientist Boy.

The Turkey earthquake was responsible for the deaths of tens of thousands of people. Doublets are marked and describe two major earthquakes separated in a short time. The first rupture fractured a long fault about 350 km long, breaking a successive different section. A few hours later, a second major rupture followed, amplifying the destruction. Doublets do not show typical aftershock behavior, and mathematically explaining it is a challenge.

“The combination of 3D fault geometry and 3D ground structure models makes the simulation much more realistic and explains the wider set of observations very well,” Mai said. These observations include complex patterns of ground shaking. This is often associated with increased damage and increased casualties due to more severe, irregular seismic waves.

The 3D rupture model developed by LI provides earthquake details, including how ruptures are caused and delayed due to the complex geometry of earthquakes and local rotational stress.

The model also shows how changes in the rupture velocity of supersea rupture representing fault ruptures that propagate faster than seismic shear wave velocity can alter seismic patterns and shake ground amplified farther away from earthquakes. This phenomenon was also observed in the Myanmar earthquake on March 28, 2025, causing serious damage in Thailand hundreds of kilometers after the rupture.

These types of ruptures have also raised concerns in seismically active areas such as the Middle East.

“Advanced numerical simulations in seismic physics will help improve resource planning and allocation, ensuring that infrastructure and livelihoods are protected from violent doublets,” Mai said.